Jul 28, 2014|
Particularly in a year where the Red Sox have struggled while trying to integrate numerous young players into regular big league roles, accusations that Red Sox prospects are overrated -- whether by the team or writers -- have been widespread. Jim Callis of MLB.com joins the show to take stock of the matter, and to discuss the team-building impact of overrating and underrating prospects.
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
To the Red Sox over rate their own prospects to liberate their prospects that the prospect following industry over at their prospects. These are important questions to consider to frame our thinking about Thursday's trade deadline. Many of us will react immediately with incredulity at the huge prospect tall did some teams are going to score for veteran. But do we really know whether or not that's a huge prospect -- whether or not there's a huge disparity in value. It's a matter that I try to consider with some frequency in the gym callous of mlb.com. Also contemplates with regularity -- Here's -- -- on whether he thinks that we operate prospects. I think I like to think get the doing this for 25 years I try to have better perspective I think. The longer I've evaluated prospects and it started these are American communities. We first -- you mean all the tax hungry focused on like the -- side and feelings tools. A lot of you covered baseball manager put -- the -- mean he's got actuary I would -- not an out and you realize there were times. That is exciting these guys are. This is sequential Carolina where record sum up top fifty prospects nagging. Why -- our content out on so I don't think -- over prospects. In general. I like him probably not much anybody but I also realize that they're not -- being the tactic and strategy like certain. You can't be spent on trades. And a comment you know they -- my management practically gave up all those prospects in and now they have at the Oilers. United -- advocate -- more balanced and then. -- -- direct action in general I'm sure yankees fans think over a Red Sox cut their community here that from Yankee -- -- -- you can't go to WEEI. Prefer covered baseball coverage that. On the other guy from every ticket into -- thought we were ridiculous. Prefer suggest that Dustin Pedroia might be better than don't concert. You know Patrick wrote about it but I think it would seem you covered the prospects for. Like I know I've -- the Red Sox cheaper. It says that three year hiatus when -- -- static when I wouldn't do it for BA and I came back in and out of -- customers such drastic step up trying to cover catastrophic for at least twelve years. I do you think there's a tendency. To overeat. The prospect of the electoral for my -- Alex routine I do personally. You tend to like their prospects a little bit lower thinking -- don't do as much on just that you talked to -- people I had my body my drug coverage in the mean I do. If you are a lot what book beyond the first couple rounds on the midwest and so I might have a an affinity for the at the midwest prospect we're gonna got another part country not because. I'm biased in -- I'm rooting for the -- at -- -- -- were people that haven't. Anybody is listening. We played if they give the impression. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- He -- it ain't there yet trillions sources. -- thought that he is not to put their toxic guys it would scout over baseball think their -- so it's not. It's not -- bite you get by the Red Sox or some particular team. But -- bigger attendance is that. I mean I continue what -- process western coming out he's been doing the Red Sox top thirty if you spend that much time talking to people about this players. If I want toward good good you feel like yeah you know a lot a little bit better and and they stick out a little bit more. Right into you know the more -- -- once you've once you've talked to have may be you know half a dozen people a dozen people from different organizations. Did you feel like you know. You feel like you're altering your sense of the probability of them in some ways right you feel like -- A better handle on them which you might but -- but that doesn't ultimately necessarily Alter. Altered the relative probabilities of what it is to be a prospect. And I putting these guys aren't sure thing but you know. Mean that's I mean you know we were the Red Sox fiscally and obviously that's the that the main focus our discussion I mean. -- when people talk about how limited the Red Sox -- system it is it is legitimately. Loaded and I know that the Red Sox are playing as well they took the stand. -- had a Red -- been contending. And we're in beautiful fire mode at this time a year. I don't think it would be extracting -- because Hillary in the process the stated they would have been in position. Other conditions to let anybody go -- require whoever they want it it would be in that you know by now. Right however it now looks like they're going to be perhaps up further adding to the terrorist act of a lot of prospects and if if they do anything between now and the deadline. Now yeah I mean it is -- make -- -- these analysts -- -- that we we don't want an MLB rush and spend thirty bit. Not so like I looked up some good players and I mean I have to -- on -- a bit -- on the -- mean. I like -- of Boston's first round picks Michael cheapest and and Michael -- recognized I think that there has a -- to be really good players and yeah we're updating analysts and LB dot com and in -- is going to be fifteen cup are going to be sixteen. Just concede put them any higher that that's now at how deep the system is right now. Yeah that's pretty staggering and and as we were also discussing typically you'll see a first round pick you know breaking the top ten of whatever team takes them. And oftentimes. You know maybe maybe Britain the top five to eight so for for a team to have to first rounder is both well regarded. Two did not break the top ten. Let alone my kind of settling in around that fifteen area does speak to the deficit died -- to the depth it's kind of -- regulated into the upper levels of their system. Only a minute in Hamlet and -- -- -- And like -- fourteen have got Sean -- couldn't possibly -- got many organizations that are out of a mass. 910. It's like 101112 and -- you are -- first six also in. You know Brian -- -- -- Matt Barnes -- ball in the mix it's a loaded. Bloated system and I gotta get we'll get some. Some really by the end of the year when it's possible McKee that's what call what -- was bit more it's possible Christian basketball pop up who witnessed that and more. Dug into what spot but right that this system is loaded and in good -- to acknowledge it loaded yet again I'm looking in my list. The top seven guys on my list. Have all playing in at least. Double play and everybody's played in Tripoli except for Henry on the Blake's wife are now. Is not like you're you're doing deep projections of these guys in these guys are pretty close to being readied enabled Al. With regards to well with regards to thinking about how the industry values prospects. What you know what it's been an interesting exercise to kind of view this this theoretical commitment to ride to prospects and young players. Becoming becoming a reality over the course of this year with the Red Sox. Laden and what lessons you learned about the about. How difficult the transition is a prospects from the minor leagues to the major leagues and how difficult it is to sustain performance. Yeah I think there's huge -- People are not the biggest jump in the minors is gone from from high -- to double -- you get to that -- double A you are not just. Raw prospect not to gotten double layer pretty skillful to go along with their tools and editors some guys were more skilled and they and loaded with -- you know ending its AAA. And I think the biggest justice news. Especially for a position. That the pictures just and the stuff so much better I mean you may have your guys can't you know throwing 95 and you might even in backstage. -- -- but it really companion the second and third pitches and. You know you look at around. And it's your pitcher -- -- publication you know you might have again breaking ball. A lot in this cat is get I would breaking -- in the lower minors and then -- -- you you get AAA and you know -- -- a -- you know unbreakable and -- in the strike from these guys -- and -- and I think. And then it goes up another degree when he in the big -- community it's completely -- Are obviously very talented physically but there and there's you know most of the pitcher's -- they're stuck extremely well and it makes it difficult for hitters and most of the hitters. You can control restriction really well they're not gonna change against -- pitcher and I think. You know the less legacy would have learned is. You don't ignore what I do -- -- But I don't get too alarmed by it. I mean you know Bogart has not had a great year he these playoffs allow many -- -- -- pander to what 21 years old and I still. You know laying in gaming -- I guess -- they should be in double leg he'd still. You know into prospect you know but he didn't qualify you know that ballot anymore at least still the best shortstop in baseball. I think that I would suspect -- venture to want to trade in your book actually I'm pretty strong market forum and Jackie Bradley struggled. With the bat. And I still think I don't inject it needed power hitter I still think. He can get to appoint or easy above average on base guy. And the defense is so spectacular which you know that's frustrating is it in my spirit -- expand. And you see much -- big games I mean this guy you know they I think again I say before this season. And I think we better players shall not directly but doesn't senator Jacoby Ellsbury -- right Jackie Brown to a gold glove that would be. You know -- any -- it and I don't know if you would ask sort of -- you don't throw the ball from hopefully that's an actual experience. I was there and yes it happens. I think I think a good hit good -- -- -- here I don't Beckett Bernanke's. Maybe double able -- in Uganda 2.0 and it -- conceptual ups and downs this year. About to fill it up short either. OK if you read section and you and you look into -- podcast which actually would be your demographic out. I would hope so otherwise I don't know much yet Yankee fans you know lifting and cash that I. I -- they -- structure -- -- treason then America deporting gated community -- Bradley have been offensively. Didn't government decree requires -- you have to -- -- and it it's very rare. That you're having a Jose Hernandez can come in and take these pop up storms are. Look like Trout I mean. You know Mike Trout here have been what basically the best twelve -- and 21 year old he's in baseball history in price -- you know on -- to -- have the best point -- either. Well it came up directly you know he's nineteen struggle I mean credit is pretty -- Thank you can't write -- got you have to realize that it is contingent under -- With regards to the evaluation of the internal evaluation prospects do you kind of note patterns within teams are being. Kind of characteristically. More on or off with regards to. Whom they value. Don't necessarily -- actually said that the particulars of mind that it sticks like I do think that I did -- amounting to step two and I think the Yankees Lakeland it would it catchers. Value offense or defense more than other teams -- -- idiosyncrasies from in between. On. But I mean you know when it comes down -- I mean you're basically looking for guys to contribute often was he can clear. Have above average stuff and an interest strikes I think most of -- probably on the same page. How drastically has the guy has the valuation of prospects changed over the course of time that you've been doing this. -- SI gave birth control. No problem. However how significant has the change in the way that the industry and the team's value prospects changed over the course of the time that you've been in that you've been in this game. I think it all mean you make me sound like animal now -- I. I think they've been people always valued prospecting and -- I think that the biggest thing we do the is when you look at how much the salaries have escalated I mean I again I guess it'll settle election only -- make it a million dollar a year. Like significant you know Ricky and it's like the -- or -- one million dollar player that. But anyway and I think because usually the salaries are so expensive. The prospects and how much more valuable Italy if you can get a guy can come in. And -- when -- make in the minimum salary. I mean aides see if you deviate -- -- can. It to Russell Wilson and you know being a lower round draft pick in cot next to nothing and an American -- the F ducks put -- try to tell her outside -- I think press -- have become. More valued just couldn't keep it online game you have a good young player. It's it's such I mean it is such as -- -- it is different. Difference in terms of the guy behind you looking like -- have an extreme example you know Mike Trout how good news. And it -- -- out what your opinion and I mean it's such huge gap. -- developing talent and funny guys like you know very very important. Well that raises an interesting question because this is there's a time when the Red Sox. When the Red Sox commitment to Jon Lester has is up the year how far they would go how many years how many dollars they'd be willing to go to. Is up in the air. In so there's there's -- I don't really think there's a realistic conversation happening in baseball operations department but there's this kind of ongoing conversation about. You know if you're the Red Sox would you rather sign. -- Jon Lester for five and 15 years 120 million dollars say. Or would you rather trade for Cole Hamels at you know whatever go to the remainder of his salary recount for four years in 96 million dollars functionally. Against the luxury tax threshold so the difference basically of 24 million dollars that you would need to part with prospects so. In that calculation. You know let's say that it took a Blake's -- hard as a headliner to get a Cole Hamels. How much of the Blake's why aren't worth. Hello I. Know how to get accused in -- line while it -- and -- I'm much and likes what it will be. -- -- -- that the closest thing about these tools and Buster Posey wound. Key consideration any if you're not under any time basically the same amount of money per year. -- actually good pitcher but you know Jon Lester can do in Boston I mean you know have to worry about there's any adjustment they held. Alex Philadelphia's a cakewalk to play in either Cole Hamels is -- world chipped it well. And I think. I you know I wouldn't. It much put Edward giving Jon Lester an extra year in a 24 million or I can have Cole Hamels. 21 last year let's go Blake's -- art and other players. I -- I'm -- Jon Lester. I I don't I don't wanna get public's heart I mean it's. I think to get help to get help that's why the teens -- additionally the Red Sox. Or you can afford the big ticket free agents or try to restart your own guys. And I know you want the flexibility Kennedy got. Actually team got a bad way when they committed Gonzales to Crawford in in Lackey was -- and they had the flexibility for the Dodgers still about. But the same time returning. Yeah you know it's like what part of what you would say he's not my country can be duster. Well -- score -- -- it -- a lonely and also an above average catcher guys can hit. Two lady with fifty homers and be a solid defender got a pretty good player and there's probably all star. Good luck story that you paid him 500000 dollars a year close to it for two or three years. And then -- he's still get a discount when it's in an arbitration. I mean you know when you can call him multiple order Jon Lester dramatic reform million dollars a year really. I think what you're hoping for. Is that you break even I mean you're not gonna get a lot excessive values. You know if you're in a picture point four million dollars a year. You know you you you might you know break even. We do not gonna come out ahead nearly about painfully wire opera thousand dollars a year I could come out where. With regards then to be to the overall state of the Red Sox are to the Red Sox system right I think that we agreed you and I both agree to -- why heart. Has a pretty considerable ceiling. Who else would you identify as the guy has the highest ceiling assets in their system right now. It got time in finding your putt on the Nazis and that you have what you got on your on your list in the -- I had him I had him shamefully at seven. I think elements. And that what the people -- people they vote only. If they like him better than almost anybody in the system -- in LA and look at and you could mean the guy wants from you expand you know over -- draft picks. You know actually you know not too much disperse your opinion huge break out here last year and now he's even better I mean it's a rookie that it is high ceiling -- -- Could argue well and you can argue with you but is the best second base prospect in the union contract moved from Boston right you can argue that Henry Owens. If that's what they're pitching prospect in the game and it arguably what part of that catching prospect in the game and LB that discussions and history. Few apps -- any kind of took the little guy that electing a picture. Yeah -- beyond I still think I mean. Not a paradox is that correct in the way that I was dealing with a Red Sox. And they were in bottom which they're not. I try to Bible of the low against India have a great year right but but added that other people and organizations to help me it's still really elected they still think -- It be on the short list the best pure hitters in in a moderately since the meat eater you know he's a high ceiling guys. If you want to dig. Deeper and go forward guys who -- Further away I mean rap field beavers and I mean there's some jokes I would bet that I mean only seventeen. Mean Wal-Mart goes out of Austin shot a little bit beaches. He only an eight ball and he's nineteen years Old Dominion or some pretty good tools there and its center fielder and you want got a question that Bill Clinton and Al western anti Iran bottler they're pitching pretty well AAA. You've got you know that -- Theoretically can be expendable -- -- -- you got what Brian Johnson and Detmer who I don't think having all around feelings from these are guys that. This year Brian Johnson the lefty throw strikes in the back bogeys and double leg. That -- rarely is hitting now like the rest are so she couldn't and city and he's he's a top to sender. I mean you're you know guys like Matt Barnes and trade Paul who has taken a step back this year you know but but it they have -- shot nearly -- shock oil earlier in the so open that second based discussion and he's dramatic you could go on economy. I mean if you want a second base even deeper Wendell Rio you know younger guys in ways you could go on and on and on it like it said if they weren't buying now the it's hard to come up with creative packaging any I can't imagine prince into -- -- whatever a rat's a that you gave the prize but. If -- raises says you know not that it works its way Hayward will retrieve -- prize for the best soccer. And the rest -- to be on the short but it seems that the put together the best offer -- So if you're the Red Sox are there any guys you'd take off limits if you were looking at the bit luckier position that they're going to need offense right there's there's a very good chance that. At some point this offseason they may look long and hard at various trade possibilities. For ways to improve their offense with the with the middle of the order bat if you -- Red Sox is there anyone who. Who is clearly off limits and any discussion. -- You know -- -- bought archer always been that they've been every should be anybody can you never know what country packaging can -- You know like it like an obvious target Internet available -- somebody like Mike and more like stands available. Qaeda that's prostitute sister right now McKee that. But I've also got Dustin Pedroia signed long term at second base. I've got Sean -- -- -- coming up behind it. And watching -- to make brigade center fielder I still believe injected relic now they feel like still. Second -- in could be you know kind -- dusty sent to center fielder in baseball says to me I mean. Look at that can be expelled me -- -- into -- school I was very content that. If I -- -- under structure with Michael I mean in the final Collin OK or LaMont on the lions in the trade Mike Stanton -- mimic estrogen Carla stand. And you know if you know -- we're going to be that is into the god who would pain me to -- would be Blake -- side. You also a Christian basket in the creek investigating what cardinal arguing that catching prospect in baseball cricket -- as. You're in the you know 81015. Cats and purpose which is -- also. Again if you cross stands there and I have to public school art in. You know I would hate to -- that out I would. I would struggle without he would -- to the guys have our country in Connecticut about -- positioned itself. -- it just just be really really -- So last question I'll ask that kind of relates back to the initial question of whether or not you and I -- prospects. You know if you're a -- if you are running up front office then you know and I think we've kind of addressed despite. Is it is at the right operating philosophy to overeat your own prospects if you're going to get the meaning. If you're going to -- on one side overeat -- underage your own prospects right. Are you better off overeating your own prospects. I actually able will disagree with you because I think you elaborate isn't it you know the most important part. Downing is still running your own guys but if you. If you -- you're prospects. And you're a young guy to be something. Or been -- is a realistic expectation or you expect more out of them and turns out it that can lead to do just planning disaster you know just. I don't think you or the Red Sox. Or an industry to pull over rate -- Red Sox prospects. So let's say the Red Sox are wrong and -- Bogart and Jackie Bradley in looking bad Blake why aren't a whole lot of these guys. And you Henry Owens you know they're gonna -- they're talking about it and Google that came around -- In the next couple years well it if they've -- all those guys they're gonna have a bad team. Indian troubles. Up -- and -- actually want to read them properly. But if you care if you -- -- raid on you don't want to give them away. What you might be totally supply is surprised and -- have very alternative plan that. -- you get a lot trouble you operate your gap and think they're better than they aren't known in either Alabama where he's been developed and trade that the electoral blow up your trees can.