May 1, 2014|
Mike Mutnansky handicaps and previews the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby. He is joined by horse racing experts Jessica Paquette (Suffolk Downs Racing Analyst) and Dick Jerardi (Daily Racing Form).
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
Kentucky Derby 140 that means the across the board podcast -- -- podcast this year's. Three times a year or so -- -- WEEI dot com in the story this year because the derby. This is the Boston sports with its strong as far as I can call this. It very few boss to connections through the Kentucky Derby you know Carinthia. Is all by the same folks that Bolden. Wicked strong -- partnership out of Beverly called Centennial farms. Been around here for a long time. But -- the end you know I don't pick up the spotlight gets stronger advocates strong -- -- -- the story. A horse they wanted to name Boston's strong that he was already taken the aftermath the tragic events. -- the Boston Marathon bombing just a year ago. But they want it's something to -- Boston feel to it they -- something tying in to. The great feeling that was the energy of the city in the rebuilding -- the city. In this case there with wicked strong outing he's got a good shot. He's got a good shot this -- -- -- six to 1 on the morning line he stuck way on the outside itself from a price standpoint. I'm not throw take in the price of six to one in the Kentucky Derby but the running style great for this race can close like a freight train. Jockey regime -- underrated. You have a Boston horse in the derby this is all you listen to today. As we get to set for this thing yelled at Boston will be rooting for wicked strong. In the Kentucky Derby on Saturday emigrate podcast or adjust the clock gets up and downs is gonna join us talk the derby and about they're opening day on Saturday. Dick Girardi. All join us in the daily racing form gave you his take on the race at the end of this podcast might -- might real insight. They ought to do -- that throw away listen. It'll be there at the end. Told doctor Jessica pocket Suffolk downs to Girardi -- recent form. -- give you might take on this race at the Berrian in the podcast. -- -- Who is with you for all of these guys the track handicap for Suffolk downs and now also. Senior direct communications happy Gary just happy Dirk and how are you off I'm good to talk about the derby and also talk about what is coming up for opening day this week in Suffolk downs and the season -- racing. At Suffolk downs and this is. Every year we get this meeting of three year old and they prep for 456 months and get together Kentucky and before -- Iran. We have opinions of what the group looks like I know for a fact and talk with the last couple weeks you're not impressed with this group that -- set up for Churchill Downs on Saturday. I think mostly just bitter because I once so high on this group at the beginning of the year with honor code in top billing in these fabulous really talented three year old. And everybody liked his -- -- -- on the sidelines for one reason or another. So I'm having a little difficulty getting really fired up for this group but after. That's 630 on Saturday they'll will be at Kentucky Derby winner whether I like -- -- nine. They will run this -- no matter what happens no matter how what you think of the field. I and the field is down at least one runner as of this afternoon we're taping this on Thursday. Opportunity has been scratched out. I'll we'll get into what that means for the race year as we talk about the race and for me when it comes to handicapping the derby. I always look at the pace the race and we'll go back and looking at debt today. At a mile a quarter when they go fast early it sets up for closers -- I could go back to last year jets right palace malice. Puts the lakers on and need to know what to expect first time experiment pals -- -- eagles' 45 and three. And horses that -- seventeenth and fifteenth early. 112 -- -- and golden -- work frost we both like the -- we all worked out. The question is what this year's derby -- I feel like it's a -- other fast paced race looking at the field. Do you feel this has a supersonic chance to be 45 and 345 and five. The first half mile. I'm hard pressed to think it's going to be that -- there's a part wildcat read what I think maybe wrong. It's the -- after. I don't you deem them to pick up -- -- -- factor on the front he's been handling Churchill he looks like where's that biases trainer. I finally scratching myself. Because I just he's handling track so portly traitor seems pleased that the work but of course that's traditionally been really good work ports. As a turtle pretty of this. He's part of what I think is a major speed appear right in you mention wildcat -- -- -- include. Vickers in trouble. For Michael maker and Rosie to -- nick and drew the rail it the only chance this horse that was ago when -- pin down the inside you have to go Harry's holiday talk -- horse at that shouldn't be here -- the the under number two -- series holiday should not be years only chance is Iran. Uncle sizable lingers on like palace now ousted they'll be he shows speeds why I immediately look at those three. And feel like those three you're gonna go with wildcat red -- generally rods got to sort of get himself involved early. And I do when vision to be similar to last year you know and that 45. And change range since 1986. But first -- miles in 45 and nine or. Pastor. Eight times all closers one. And maybe it's sort of tell -- who are leading in this race. I gore leading towards that right now there's nobody he's going to be -- -- in the front end that's gonna realistic around. -- public Del Monte. We've we've we've heard yet if he's gonna run in this race at Wesley ward made that decision on Amazon I have not heard in which makes it tough to handicap because we are waiting to hear it wants to put a native hobbled a -- days in a -- on your race reports twenty. It's another speed add to this race right so I view it as a very fast pace and for me that's why start my derby handicapping we're restart your derby handicapping. If you just take notes throughout the years like kind of walk on the certain courses and I stick with them race the real bull -- I am like that nothing else I am loyal. And California from I have to think he's just grown on me in case -- that really like that seconds here right off the pace soccer type I think that's. Really the kind of worst that can win the derby if you look I'll have another he just your pace. -- Cheerleading is ready to the favorite in the race he's the morning line five to two favorite California chrome we talk about pace you talk about. This race horses that go as fast as pals malice that don't win. And favorites that are as big as California if chrome dole when he is five to two lactic activation expectation would be with opportunity out. I think he's going to be 21 I think he's going to be at the highest five to two I can't see him floating up. Past that do you think there's a chance that he. I think you're gonna get an awful price on him if you're really planning to that this race and try to make some money I try to beat him. I think you're -- to have a tough time trying to beat him he's this -- the source you don't know what to do it because these California horses that have run. Exclusively in California don't really have the best track record shipping it to Churchill and doing all that well he reminds me so much of general challenge who in 1999. Went -- is the favorite. Physically they look nearly identical big test that's with a lot of wide. Came in after the huge fans an interview in general challenge managed eleventh you care asthmatic and really history in his favor. But I may I have a huge East Coast bias and huge East Coast elitists and I don't know why I like this -- I think because he's the only one. That is stuck around all your needs then can fifties and good he's gotten. We'll bring it stands out to me in if you if you like a white feel. You can take a stand with -- -- ports you look at what he's done here 2013. Since Victor Espinoza got -- He's four for four since December. Bodies last two speed figures are pretty much power over the rest the field if you believe in the the buyers is being your go to handicapping method. Of one away and a 107 and how easy he didn't see at the derby that should make you feel good for me. When I handicap I start with the favorites let's start with California -- -- great horse. But as a -- I can't punch five to -- -- twenty horse field or nineteen horse field. And the other thing that I would have and as a negative against him. To those last five races broken portly added a field of nineteen or twenty. If I'm gonna take a short price I need a horse that I feel pretty confident. Has got to get out of the gates I don't think he's going to be a big closing he's got going to be up properties going to be -- that next year forces were actually historically where you wannabe. He has his right and he's breaking from the great post that historically has been very kind of derby winner silver charm and funny side of war -- all came out of the five hole. But he's a big awkward gangly thing I think if he breaks even a step slowly Sam rat dancer come to break much better -- he will and he'll be really. Shuffled back to you like California -- I'm not a fan will be some pics here at the end. The horse that people here in Boston are just it is on the outside wickets drawings of -- -- the twenty now I could probably get a -- in the nineteen at the scratch of opportunity. He was a horse that I loved early in the year. Lost a lot of money on -- strongly race in Florida he was awful to lift the whole off. Into different races went to new York and was a great price and the pace scenario set up and I love them that day in the wood memorial. And I like him again here today in the Germany is running style. Sets up for this race I love the old school -- Rangel of jerk and is being the guy here I lover she barrage. Who was underrated to be in New York I agree totally. I think I'm buying into the story quite a bit of -- strong -- Boston horse and I like that. What is Nader's chances on Saturday. I feel like such a derby grange. -- that I want to like it's north of course this sort of cycle for every bit my type reports and love the pedigree I love the connections I love the jockey. I should love everything about the sports. But I just think he's too much of -- head case to win the derby I don't like his behavior I don't like -- he's been galloping at Churchill. He has this really unpleasant habit of getting really erratic in the -- In -- -- the twenty can't do that hope to win or stay up even if he does when he takes up half the field doing so here. It had that kind of behavior is just it's tough to break aboard -- as someone who rides a very difficult very quirky horse. He is when he is that kind of behavior sticks with them you don't really train of. You're at Suffolk downs opening day Saturday -- -- to wheel racing fans and I get a chance -- talked to here talking sports and studio. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- On our show Friday. What is the response been it's offered to wicked strong -- for our fans completely on board with this horse. -- they're very much on board it's great to see so many people rally with a source because of what he stands for and it's wonderful that a percentage of his earnings is down to the one -- terrific we're really rooting for these local connections that definitely the sentimental rooting interest I'm pulling for him I'm just betting against him. Our percentage of the derby it's was it 1% during weddings and then 5% of any Triple Crown winning totals gonna go back into the one fun. A must they were Centennial farms had no idea until recently there were based in Boston and had this story. It's good for wicked strong Alec it's good for legal and -- getting any good public knowing and racing is good. They're Beverly based partnership that related it's one of those wonderful partnership that likes. Like that would allow a lot of people get involved in great horse they had printing in win the Breeders' Cup dirt mile quite a few years ago so I met the wrong strong and that Boston's strong this summer circle with Mac gets -- -- -- sovereign state rules they have boss and -- And -- I didn't know I was gonna beat me beat Boston's front it's up and downs -- He's wonderful I'll come out there to a report that on -- you're not as -- and -- -- -- the derby grinch -- -- -- -- course. Let's go to if you look at the field now I don't have been updated morning line up because what happened here. Back to California aunts and if you like California crawl. You must like my horse candy boy who has written by Gary Stevens trade by John Sadler twenty don't want on the morning line. Was compromised last time -- -- go into the race early Gary Stevens lord is less -- he will be closing in this race if you crawled to one. You gotta like my guy candy boy a point yet. Stand candy -- I know I like Gary Stevens. Let's look at the race he won. To expect to be key to who arguably has no business being in this race admit nighthawk may be most legitimate every horse is on the Triple Crown is a sprinter is pretty expert during the -- And get it that's what candy boy -- you. CID. And I'm trying to think of how can best positions. The way handicap -- pace and price. When they they are and in this case I'm getting reports that the beginning of the year. Was right there were sheer belief when he closed like a free trade sheer belief with maybe the best horse as a two year old. He was right there he came back -- one next time and any stumble and I'm getting because of that that's double because -- -- -- the race early taken out of style. As some rides horses you know when they don't get to do what they wanted to. The actions under rate may -- dodger. And I feel like this I'm looking for price lots California crawled. I'm going to be a fan of candy blow out the ends the number four horse year Todd Pletcher. Has a couple of entrance here will get the time in the second. Closer. Read his eyeballs on the Arkansas derby the problem I have is unaware that race came from. And not Charlotte take 10191821. To bet that he's gonna replicate his best performance ever a horse run four times in his career. The inexperience is an issue. And I just don't know how legitimate that Arkansas derby wasn't like Ryan on -- who we can get to like do you actually like them maybe not necessarily to win but can't he. I just he didn't impress me I don't like him -- completely forget -- horse may know Jersey Joseph Bravo battery can have great. Joseph Joseph great to see him involved in a big race like this. What about what do Pletcher is other horses by the two to have the best shots when habits for yes in this field intense holiday and -- general I think it's -- supersonic pace. Intense holiday is -- in a lot of big races object -- grade one's agreed Tuesday best -- back to last October. Has the running style for race like this gonna grind out those quarter miles. And has apparently taken to attract guys like Mike Welch DRF clockers who look at him awesome to think he is one of the -- horse -- sources but it -- -- holiday. Race like you like and -- -- I think he's looked really good but he like -- it's -- has issue. It could be a big actor he's not able to get it under control and jockey to actually might really help that take nothing away from like that whatsoever. But then had to cross firing -- and of course is on the wrong. Someone even with the -- and the other leave -- -- supposed to be on the same lead. And -- science and then switch in the -- he's running on two separate -- which is why he went sideways and nearly went into the real in his last race. And that it nasty habit that he's developed it perfect twelve to one horse that likes to run like that question. And they from what I've been hearing with the work as Anthony they really working on the cross -- issue and trying to get him to continually pick up the correct same -- -- In a race is that really keep looking keep it on the correctly with all four -- and I don't know that's enough to make him appealing to. You would -- like California chrome short price. -- got your list to the other horses we haven't talked about yet there will be. On your tickets on derby ride on drilling and stammer at those that are kind of -- -- don't like -- strongly likes camera and do you like seeing how is that possible. I really love to -- the wood memorial he had he is up against him with social inclusion. And really fought back and I think that's the -- of this first loss and some of course get something out of -- loss like that you could see him really fall back a little bit then bite on. And really come back nicely and I don't know if he's really a mile and a quarter horse. And -- another issue like with intense volleys out of noble causeway of -- things -- the -- issued here he kind of hangs on his left lead refuses to switch in the stretch that he can do that. He's not winning. But he's an honest tough thing that really I really really enjoyed watching him. Yea he's a tough force he's a great state for their -- it's gonna be fun to watch him this year no matter what happens in the derby he's a fighter. Ronald curl is interstate I -- he was on my short list of 8910 or so before the derby draw before. The last couple weeks were set I want us to -- the prices on the source. Burrell gets stuck way on the outside he he I'd always a closer anyway. Cal morals gonna wanna get to the -- this is what he's -- of course like super saver like street sense from way out there. And the price you know -- it's a demo about pace of price when I handicap. The role horses always -- over bet on derby day sweep might be involved but I don't like about a month top what are you like about his running style that suits him for the Kentucky Derby he's monetize. Planning on using in my exotic summer's second third. Maybe filling out a stupor I just don't know if he's the kind of course that wants to win. He's a horse that type hangs a little bit he's been right in the mix against the night sources but he has really yet to prove he can get the job done. And also funny thing for some of Curley who you think would wanna run forever -- the one go past six for airlines. -- mystical -- go away from him in a lot about adolescent like him you're just dying to talk yourself -- I -- I might -- he's -- but the more I look at the -- -- -- -- -- -- to ignore him until a placement -- I try to talk you would gold this'll last year remember sitting in a different studio where I -- -- gold and souls of all launch satellite and thank you hear the laughter on our guys are firmer talks last -- how we discounted on that would will take charged with a network to the best horses that ran last year. For that reason he will not alum I have that was to win. I'll have underneath a couple plays Dallas Stewart commanding curve I'm not eaten not is locked into the breeding as some people are. When you look at AP -- out master command out of AP Indy out of a lion hearted man digests. He did last year at a big price he's right to run all day he is slow as all get out but if it's going to be faster release -- we've -- -- -- up in the bottom tries and super is an exact is. He'll be fifty to one local council a year ago I'm gonna throw in Dallas to its commander -- on the bottom tickets and you'll laugh at me. Again. Well. -- Commanding her as you watch that last -- and I don't understand what everywhere and liked about it. -- in trouble finished abysmally slow it and yet everything is on way out front he was just crawling home. -- polity was trying to -- go through the rail and still command -- without making up ground on either. -- I don't like that race so what we're betting strategy be -- one talk about opening -- topic down some of the other races on the undercard. How you approach a twenty horse field a three year olds or Google -- quarter for the first time in their lives dark. Besides starts. I really I think all roads at this point lead to California from just providing he takes to the surface. He just breaks everything handicapping rule I have and I just keep going back through and then using him in -- them have -- -- value to go with him Alex hammer rat. I don't curl when you may have talked yourself up dust on it as well we've decided -- loyal and sticking with them. -- -- oil mixture I am elite to have back. L probably pro with its rugged because I am a little bit of homer and I can't help it. Our respect that and you don't wanna be. You don't wanna say added how wicked strong now just in case you don't -- I -- a boss and the race before that the wood for turf classic I don't what are your favorite horses idol ever certainly recently since we've talked wise Dan. It's gonna run back he's not actually one of my favorites but I just admired Elden just keep running -- is -- -- five he's got the the inside post and I. I'm glad he's back and running this year. That the path he took last year you know running in this race running in you know. I'm miles turf -- up at Saratoga. I think I'm looking for more analyzed -- this year I -- -- seven years old he is gonna go down as -- the great grass horses -- ever seen. But if he wants to be three time horse of the year award winner it starts at this raced him he's got to win this race on Saturday Jessica he's got to have. He's got a more difficult path he's got to try some different things if he wants to get votes for horse of the year at the end of the year. Oh absolutely I would love to -- pop up in the Arlington million at the met mile or something really ambitious. But I think we're just looking at derby day you're trying to make a little bit of money you can't figure out who you like in the derby did the double use lies and over the field and and really hope for a ball. You think he's a free square and -- -- is where and it's important bring that up because there pick threes involving wise to hand picked force picked five the -- six all these races gonna end on derby day. With the Kentucky Derby all these races so. If you're have a limited budget you want to expand a lot of wars I would agree a look at that field. And it's a lot of speed I think I looked it's tiring it's OK maybe -- goes wired I just. I think it's wise stand -- fortify its -- price but it's a free square in that race course we could not and wrong about more wrong about last year will take charge. Back on the derby undercard back evolve this weekend. What a job by. 2013. -- criticism applies in that there are a little bit and ambitions I think you could say yeah absolutely will take charge of Reno that if that's going to campaign and he's go he's not going to miss a day campaigns of all and amazed by the source even assignment -- song I never thought -- -- state and one piece throughout the Triple Crown if they're not really the sound this preachers. But will take charges just he blows me away more every time he races I and Gary Stevens the jockeys -- what do you think about that. I was surprised by it but I think that there is a -- angle with Gary is on candy boy the derby winner this weekend to -- I will have. -- we'll take charges lawsuit that makes sense. I like the entire card on Saturday it's a -- -- really beginning to end. What about the -- at Suffolk downs -- opening day of live -- Suffolk downs to coincide with Boston's biggest and best derby party let's confirm. There's a fire there -- this week we are all set for opening day on Saturday we are. Of there -- fire department did just an incredible job ads that -- horsemen and women it was a great unified job by everyone and we're really excited for opening. Not any kind of things just haven't store this year not just an opening day of the biggest investor every party in Boston but. Throughout the year -- envisioned -- year going it's up and -- it's going to be great were running until September this here's the we'll have a fun summer. Post time is 215 this Saturday but then we'll go back to our regular 1245. Recent throughout the summer so what better way to spend Saturday is the 215 on derby day just as the opening day into it you know. It tied into the derby be run at 6 o'clock yet just so people don't have a an hour and a half with nothing really to entertain them until the derby. That's Smart that her as blog post that church or get in. -- that -- -- -- its senior director communications are your idea to do that just well and it's a group effort the team effort at Suffolk downs and to give you the credit -- And the thing that I go to supper -- more than ever last year the thing that I enjoyed was. You know you can -- their during the week and it and you can go there and I did so -- NASA's Jamison quell a couple times knock out there you corrupted in the -- but I -- we took over the dark side and the people there from the tellers to the bartenders. On -- the people serve food he gets such a great crew there and you sit there on the -- sit there on the outside. Right there and it's smelled of the ocean. You bet horses you walk in and -- Saratoga ensemble cast. It is a great time my son is already doesn't know yet -- seventeen months old. He's making his first trip to Suffolk downs this summer and that's I -- and always exciting yet but I think. I think I'm gonna show in the -- play area for kids really but the kids over here and say mom and KG go -- I'm gonna -- bet the daily double and run -- against you -- That is true he'll be hooked for life we're gonna do that on -- you're gonna go California chrome Sam rat. And run on -- Absolutely -- -- three and I'll give you my picks here at the end of the podcast just a block at Suffolk downs. Racing analyst ANC direct communications. Have a great opening day Suffolk downs this Saturday and good luck under Reid -- not. As we continue with the Kentucky Derby won forty podcast across the board right here on WEEI dot com we told you about suffered downs opening day on Saturday and of course derby day. As well and that leads -- yourself locked and loaded no better place to do that that express spec dot com they have a free Kentucky Derby wagering guide. He can wager on the races right there express that when he can't go to the track and Dick Girardi. Was an award winning writer I read in the DRF Philadelphia Daily News and he is a big part. The express bet wagering guide once again this year and -- them back to preview the derby. Happy -- Vicario. Court. This should be -- one of these derbies where I -- got to make that decision going in do you wanna take. A five to two favorite party wanna go somewhere else and it looks like it based on a I your analysis of this race you are willing to. Bet that may be California crawled is -- big brown to take a short price a which should be a big favor on Saturday. Yet that's what I'm gonna do now I'm not get better in the went four months -- -- perfect -- -- grocer feel obligated to this morning -- potential for. Ridiculous amounts of money but yeah -- it would have looked at Mike -- conceded the race to California chrome directory perhaps to do that. And any structures that start architect and all over the extranet -- rest it. Conchita or am I am actually shut down fortune numbers just trying to figure out how I'm gonna play much a perfect detectives that. Yeah that's exactly apply. On a propel -- -- he is on paper if you follow although the racing formula he's fire speed figures that your speed figures of choice he has. On paper just the best course I'm curious do you think he's that good Dick urge your opinion that your wallet take the short price and and key -- topic of your super senior exotic plays because he's that good because -- the field is that suspect in this year's derby. I think. Obviously he's program in his four on the jumps off the nature to work -- last four races by almost 1 o'clock -- -- Suppliers -- triggers are also dramatic repair that and but he also want horses -- you're consistent. 2000 workings and are very high level. Where's the other horses and a lot of good horses they just haven't done it racer or race giving it one big -- in -- not been. Where there wasn't much -- and all of a sudden really declaration -- strong advance a compromise that they really had done much before they want Arkansas -- that would memorial so. You know I wanna fight the worst I feel very comfortable is going to wrong juniors that stability and and -- California grown by. After that it is very complicated for the re and I just sort it there just isn't a tremendous amount of consistency which rushed for. What you mentioned California chrome is running against some of the West Coast sources including opportunity. Opportunity scratches out of this race with six to one I thought a really good chance to bat against. Opportunity I thought that was really a low price for him if you like California -- so much. What did you think stick of opportunity before he gets scratched out what he had been a a major player for you in this race. Well I I think it's -- like this style running more so than anything else that body was or is going to be running at the Spanish. Which is McConnell or ceremonies in my -- fact that. I didn't think he was going to be able to America but five excellent California rugby get the Antarctic Szczerbiak acted like -- -- -- finished. But he is or should or should do yet to do a lot of very short time. And it came out not -- worked in net in net -- on Monday that a problem magician has been stretched out. It's a moot point I did not like price -- you don't have my post -- -- solely for what you actually on. But it is Bob -- like it certainly that. See you guys went through this in Philadelphia was Marty Jones having a local horse that is is getting an opportunity on national level for the first time the -- remember. There's a Boston angle here to this derby that's wicked strong all bicentennial farms. Beverly -- their partnership group they -- this -- wanted to make Boston's strong that was taken. They went wicked strong he closed wickedly. In that would memorial. A lot of East Coast lot of Boston bats will be on the source what got a chance to get wicked strong on Saturday -- -- life -- he has a legitimate chance to win it I thought here's what memorial was the second. Best preparation I saw a year behind California crunch and Anita derby. Got a question what we're good strong was that I was that I wanna with that just something that it happened in a vacuum. And it's not gonna happen again I would look at it when you look at British general form -- -- -- secure and it really good or in the ramps and and it just didn't want Clark and it does happen maybe it was whether that's a -- company just inspire them there. But I think he's. More likely to run closer it was what memorial -- -- -- or more so got it for the Boston people I think there of course I'm sure we're four. And rocket -- for a 31 shot this course may very well be go off a suspect. Did you downgrade -- all based on the post position months ago and he'll get moved all with a scratch but still stuck out there in ninety. Didn't pottery justice and his running style he's going to be covered on the back in any way and I'm actually a big proponent of being in this talks Hillary gate. I just think you're in the -- one or steal. The for a or else you can see away from the track. The better chance you have naturally you know I think accurately ought to back out for the common it -- -- about it but. There's the potential that all the street could close in front government could be -- I'm not familiar position by. You know you don't doubt that it it until we actually run a range but not -- if you like -- -- -- I would not -- or. You mentioned that the speed in this race from in the wake got drawn -- Vickers in trouble on the inside. Maker short which -- ago -- holiday. I guess the two uncle -- -- on maybe a palace malice angle there in the three do you expect -- a supersonic pace in this race on Saturday. I -- and here's why I think it's actually has more a lot more case -- paper than last year's derby did. But I think it jockeys and trainers are gonna react to what happened. And it -- water on the backstretch listening to people that should know better like people round. While can't read it. And general A-Rod -- we'd like to these all blow off the pace like 45 blacks are not they're being. But a lot of trainers and jockeys are thinking is also everybody's gonna try to -- all the page. And we get -- oracle situation like you know through worse all the essential forces ultimately. Al-Qaeda could actually be at people are thinking about this all it could be teleport. He's actually asked. And if you look at his shamefully paid what they have well 453 or just -- the field I don't think they wanna be in front. But I think they could be brought it just depends on what you know -- these in the obstructions and all that -- You're not walk or go -- speed on paper but a lot of times paper he could throw paperwork. Intention it's a lot -- for the paper and Eric you just think everybody's got this in their mind that we got this great help out last year I don't want a repeat that are. All this game will make you rip up a lot of paper let's talk about that if you go to this would be willing to put California chrome and his price on top. Who the horses you wanna use underneath of their big prices -- you think can fill -- exact is and tries and the super tickets the you're working on as we speak. Yeah I'd want shots at the moment are our fourteen medal count I just I love everything that the clockers albeit pan -- As art form is it's not just prospect at all. And that's that's a real concerns raised questions are -- just good. I think -- just wears you just got good right now dale Romans knows where registration and the top -- real warriors. So I think he's actually Brit berries back on form there's a reason were there one of them. I also think it. In Terrence holiday -- -- -- -- well. He's also bought 4 o'clock -- I'd like his style of running to become the Packers running errands. And of course -- its resources look at it if you want on the line is commanding urban heat up and run nearly -- not yet. What are our law does Louisiana derby -- -- -- five but he ran -- better than marry at all to trouble. And it is gonna probably be last at the beginning of the race. But everybody you know -- ought to be stagger and stretched. He just looks like one of these sources that it ask a whole porch or worse is that -- slowing down. And maybe get there or which is all I want that he wants it and -- on what can happen again ups -- open. Dan I was lucky lot of us a lot of people caught golden soul because of that angle last year got a round -- the exact in Dallas Stewart back in again. Similar horse wants to run all day slowly gets in -- late in the week I guess I'll make the case or my horse you -- California chrome. What about candy boy -- to what fifteen to 120 to one gonna be somewhere and they are taken out his running style. In the -- glass -- on the Santa Anita derby Gary Stevens had to close he admitted that they're gonna take him back. Out of candy -- I think bred to run all day if you like California chrome nickel candy boy who ran third to last time the anywhere on your tickets Saturday. That would be on my tickets I double -- going to be one of -- or my take it's I'm just not sure. He's moved a lot forward from -- funeral -- there was three year old season. I think that he wanted to Bob Lewis in a job fabrication to Montreal. Yeah obviously weather many partners specimens candidate -- look at the if you want about percent. So I think Ali I -- you know give. Vastly improved performance and I think Iran backed operation around the cash called mid December respect and -- sure believe the funeral champ. Then I think he's got a chance that it's the work at all. It -- a really improved dramatically and but yeah I think it yet -- is going to be a big part air it would appear to get a little bit but he -- editorial line and I think you'll be every bit. -- before we get your final picks here and go through the -- wartime I'm curious. We will talk again hopefully before the Triple Crown is over it in the Belmont Stakes day now as someone has been around racing for a long time what they've done a New York which is -- Belmont day. Opt into basically a mini Breeders' Cup day I'm curious your thoughts on that and it can racing look at that if this is a positive result that day and it's a big day for the sport. Will more tracks how to do that which is takes a mistake days combined them into one a big day try to make an event deal like that and he like -- -- doing on Belmont day. I do like it I think it to any of their great races according to met my outlook there are run on Belmont Stakes they could get lost. And we're also gonna have a a rematch in the top 33 year old Billy from last year. And which should be just awesome be holder's comment from the West Coast to run against currents and some more closed patches don't act court. So we could just get a nice day and fire which Belmont park I think it's got to be what set of many Breeders' Cup and yeah I think or rationing is a sport -- the bigger threats are as big as they've ever -- I mean -- derby just keeps getting bigger you're you're you're out. The problem is there aren't enough of them. And the public needs to know art this is being. Well now they can do and your tree here I think people are gonna get sensitive this -- -- Where are -- -- and north of Philadelphia. Archery she has two million dollar races. That they run on the same -- It urged Saturday and in September at approximately Serbia in the its affiliates. And they they watch them together couple years ago to do exactly what virus that. And it's becoming its stake in -- local television -- TV show the last three years. And it's starting to actual. But that's what you have to do that before they had wants the possibly interpret what you know other than -- don't -- -- -- get pitchers should got to put it together. I do I think it that's that's what the sport needs and we can ever get -- Hugo. Some continuity where we actually have a series pants and put together. I don't like to ask or -- people just understand what was about and that it would be. No EB and it's a situation where the tracks actually taught and try to plan out a series -- it makes sense for a twelve month calendar c'mon what are or. He's award winning writer Dick Girardi he is his analysis along with Bob knew -- people love around these parts of new -- Is available expressed bet dot com it is free free wagering guide right there you go to the website. -- you know we sign up you put a little bit of information it's free download right there get yourself locked and loaded. I got you down for a confident California chrome on top followed by a medal count intense holiday and the Boston north wicked strong -- to add that right. You gotta like that is it's and I would be that if that comes and I can guarantee one thing I will have. If metal cal comes in you'll have it and it will be a big -- he's Dick Girardi expressed bet dot com Dick thank you so much we'll talk you down the road. So there you go to analysts to professionals. Both confident the favorite in this race Jessica pockets up accounts. Should put California chrome -- -- San rat and -- on curl and Dick Girardi. -- what California chrome. On top of medal count and it tense holiday. And finally quickest on the Boston or sub boss an angle here in Kentucky Derby won forty. You can tell -- this race is going to be fast pace up front -- this race gonna set up for closers and the closer that I will take is a price closer that is candy -- West Coast contingent. Is a closer by trade but was taken out of his race. Last time out the Santa Anita derby Gary Stevens had a sourced to close the pace he acknowledged it just yesterday. On Thursday saying look we gotta be closer. -- further away in this race were to close last time attic you'll -- the trip. B 678 lengths off the pace -- Dirita -- at the top of the stretching it a hall of fame jockey Gary Stevens you get a very good trainer and John Sadler. And you get a price that I can deal with which would be eighteen to lights on for that right now. Alec -- strong for second. In the mix there. Going to be stuck there on the outside. Nineteen position not great. But again good underrated jockey -- -- regime mirage great local story in Israeli style fits if he was a Boston horse or not I would bet a mark price will be lower. Because he has a Boston -- there is a buzz about the source right now. Which -- strong is right there for me intense colony for Todd Pletcher. Number one of the closers training great at Churchill Downs this week. Pace price and work out that's my handicapping style on the work it's been great and -- holiday. The other two all include. Besides California -- why respectful play underneath and defensively in victories and picked fourth in the fifty cent -- five. Command occur fifty to one heard Dick talk about a I love golden slasher to -- price will come back and use commanding curve defensively in this race it's. Toy horses is made canned this time a year hopefully catch price. I know -- aperture who's fifteen of 1 of the morning line Steve Rasmussen. Not any great situation right now PR lies and -- going on with the his horses but I I. Like them early in the year hasn't developed like I wanted to but I can't. Get off the bandwagon now. And I got to include him somewhere underneath because -- Richard candy -- my derby horses. Three or four months ago. I wanna stick with those sources so I'll put candy boy on top by a group underneath will be tense holiday wicked strong commanding curve. California -- defensively. And temperature. Don't forget the year gonna be the Boston area Suffolk -- the biggest and best Kentucky Derby party it is a great time. I'd go to for some more analysis on this -- picture parties express -- wagering guide his stuff -- -- there. -- stuff is Annika check out new respect for the race expressed a -- -- It is for several on Saturday that with your head not overrated enjoy Kentucky Derby won forty. -- -- --