Sep 6, 2013|
Kerry joined Dale and Matt to give a statistical preview of the NFL season.
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
3-D NC Sports Radio WEEI Dale Arnold Matt Chatham -- -- John Jerry and Kirk they will all be back here Monday. It is the opening weekend of the National Football League season. Started last night in Denver is the Baltimore Ravens begin defense of their Super Bowl championship by getting. -- by the Denver Broncos had seven touchdown passes for Peyton Manning last night to -- the NFL record. Patriots open the season Sunday in orchard park New York against the Buffalo Bills. A one of the web sites that we've talked about for years here that we like going to a little more statistical bent his Q what approach things from the -- National Football League perspective. Is cold hard football facts dot com. The guru -- cold hard football facts is -- Bernie joins us on the AT&T hotline. AT&T is the nation's fastest now the most reliable Ford GL TE network carry -- Matt how are yeah. Gentlemen I don't today. It's sort of be the start of the new year for US -- Yeah absolutely you know -- in addressing you just mentioned that is Manning threw seven touchdown passes last night the Kansas City Chiefs still threw eight touchdown at the all the options. Calculated -- all right where everybody -- think everybody to -- the football. But in reality this is a great disparity between the man is operating in teams and still struggling. That is to get into the modern -- that stunning to me that -- team would don't -- a year. With eight touchdowns -- Which is why Alex Smith is now the quarterbacking Kansas City this. Absolutely absolutely and I you know I've been meaning to be an interesting player to watch and see if he -- be product of the -- -- -- systems have been historically is. All the player you know we thought he might become over the last couple years -- -- selected for the. Guided them to be -- at John Dennis schism here -- -- talk to me like -- a third greater. Bumper sticker this army tell me what the intelligence index means on cold hard football facts. Welcome to the pretty cool idea we talk about it actually that would be it might be -- addresses of well. We talk all the time about situational football right what what team played well and situational football and in the picture there historically massive of that right they they do all the little things right at least market. In the red zone the internal went down you know when -- win the turnover battle don't -- a lot of penalties played very efficient football intelligence index. It measures that one up until the specific number are. It will what we find it totally don't what do what do we find that intelligent -- -- incident comes in looking and they also. Don't teams consistently get killed against the split happened. Big because it would happen that people kind of look or via the physical attributes which he cannot measure intelligence and great example last year the Philadelphia Eagles. We called the dumbest team in football right. Everybody looked at how much talent they but week after week. Think they were underachieving and that the bought fourteen last year on the intelligence that went 1944. And one at 30% against the spread. So not only do they not win on -- -- under achieved because. People aren't really American intelligence cannot measure all the little things that separate -- as well there's been in the NFL where you know there's a razor thin margin between -- So Kerry what's built in your manager communism's proprietary uses some sort of we're -- -- at all I should know what is it. We literally have two major missions of efficiency we call more they'll right that that's how efficiently return yards in the simplest. We call it guard -- point what I regard you need to score the equivalent of a single. Or the other equivalent of the touched all of you look at and a different that we would -- -- -- met with what we do what -- part of by the bend but don't break -- all right -- Talk what that company analyst. If they're taught what the bend but don't break defense term we quantify -- -- and again the -- Bill Belichick -- his you know his team that historically massive of the bend but don't break defense we quantify intelligence and it just put those two together. Imagine the smartest of the football and play the best situation football over and over. And it did all the little things like image internal margin at britney's special teams efficiency. You know red zone offense and defense and in. And like effects marking wouldn't have been dumped in the game but too often we just look at the physical attributes the team. And an -- mental attribute and I think it's just kind of but compelling way that can try to separate the wheat from the you know. And just to keep it simple the smartest team in the NFL last year was the Seattle Seahawks the second smartest team was the New England -- And how well I I we we thought Seattle I mean I think Seattle is in the -- very legit shot to win the Super Bowl. You know it got a funny Pete Carroll at the bit about how a lightweight reputation here in Boston right because he came up to build ourselves. Obviously that he did not quite do it well and we inherited suitable you know it -- conference champions. And I think people bought it still kind of makes all the Pete Carroll the reality is apparently very good coach the government Seattle. That the abdomen in an LA. And you know right now -- let you quickly get an effective team last year they do that. First and 47 years to score fifty plus points back to back games and the number one defense in football and a bright young quarterback oh and by the way deal. It was the smartest team football. Carry one of the yellow lab at Texas -- -- up action popped in my -- -- -- started this conversation you with a filly my first thought without the without to have the spreadsheet for enemy was Detroit I did what we did that -- earlier this year and it was it was and should look over there numbers and -- of the world's least stat guy but. I it was interesting to see just how old they -- they accumulate lots and lots and lots yards but didn't finish -- a lot to drive them curious where they were they -- -- Right very good games when he -- the -- or Detroit Oakland -- in the city kid in the back to the dumbest team in football -- you know they -- a particular caliber team like -- like Detroit so. I got it -- what you're -- an effective and I mean look at Calvin Johnson -- the greatest receiving season. -- -- above all I'm the most receiving a pedestrian and with what they get out of the bat or wins. You reject them but I don't think that he wanted to get it that even the ball I'm actually put these stupid he. They could not brickyard to the point say they made critical mistakes at key times. Brought in as a result they went. Don't orange well you know they all the talent in the world and help you if you don't have the mental capacity just to play and. I want my biggest beefs with that was staff to sort of always been this and I think you touched on this or at least with the -- Jaffa particles that are read this morning on this intelligence -- Talk about the what George is also part of the merger but it's -- imports of converting those yards in the points and that's sort of what is your personal litmus test. I enjoy that because -- always my biggest complaint with the focus on and I understand fantasy football aspect I understand the entertainment value. And how folic -- Alan you know how much you can being grossed by the sort of process of drafting your own team in track -- -- guys get the last. Look at the sports I mean just because by virtual some sort of ground keepers decision years and years ago to paint white lines on our field we somehow more merit in that and I really don't see the difference of football on basketball reports that they don't track how many feet -- on the big damn court. And if they did we somehow interpreted differently at the end of the day. Bend don't break it still has keeping with the goal -- you know it did you really making a conscious effort. The knowledge to score points in in in understanding but the how much -- really doesn't matter how for the door opened on the court people stick in the basket I think it's really. Sort of the core document that people often miss. Because you get sort of inundated with the -- -- the white lines that you pass and your feet as you go -- but that's really not we could literally play our football game. If they stop paying the field would be fine you get to ten yard marker we move up and down but inevitably the balls -- -- that's really why were out there. I don't care about what we do it like it did you know what you -- -- some spirited debate about the topic. We don't I don't care what it is that we're not on nine I didn't mean opinion that went on and acted when it was and you think you're right in. Year is. Like into the patriots for example they picked up but don't break and they don't. The only other team -- you know. Secondly in defense because -- but the second Hewitt yeah but you know that they have given all the time and that doesn't really matter people so many people all people should know better run network analyst they don't know what went -- was -- game and what we it is. What's that we do what they acted -- him and did what we do -- or -- consistently that at insider I've had about premium product of weeks people. What steps within that game but you know inadequate that you can because it much better and I can dramatically. All of incredibly complex game. No statistically speaking at the very simple for. You win when your quarterback opened what in simplest. And actually look at our do everything about you know. Having a quarterback but you don't play more efficiently in the post and we're -- what about -- we haven't called real quarterback rating magical aspect of -- that way. The top 102 performance does not indicate the last year. Those teams -- 120 of the 101 and one. It hit it perfect we call real quarterback rating is simple without quarterback play the quarterback you win games -- systematically there are a lot of that is -- -- that. But the reality you know that don't want to look to dwell on that at quarterback a play. There was a an interview with Peyton Manning before the game last night -- happily -- Bob Costas and -- was kind of half joking when he said there's still a place in the NFL. For the drop back quarterback he said Meehan that guy in new England and he talked about Drew Brees infect I don't fault but with the read option becoming involved. It has sort of changed the way you approach the quarterback position the NFL. Which is why exactly do we created a real quarterback rating good passer rating both measures at quarterback there's -- But the so much more the quarterback and then just throw the football especially. In this Spain Italy with the read option and guys like Robert -- pretty and Russell Wilson. And not him in in in in the cap and -- every exactly so what we do it the real quarterback rating it also put rushing yards and put all the political act and put every. It's just a way to measure a quarterback in one number not just after the football that's still. That the what you need to do well at the end of the day that -- have looked at the new wave of -- that. I did RG three would not only an electrifying player alas it usually best most efficient -- in football. I -- number two with an -- for attempting with them but we have a great example wanted to. Our real quarterback rating lucky -- the most effective quarterback in football Q would it remarkable that never happened that's it you know it is to take. Look I think the unions would god it just ride you know. Went often -- and I think he was eaten in pro football for five years before and the starter Terry Bradshaw at the plate or by the people -- these guys. In Pittsburgh. I think stated that the committee -- dated brave young agent and -- -- in the pro style offense that they are running the applicable to succeed and didn't call it. And -- commented yet -- -- ready to play Roosevelt football and and succeeding. In whatever way you want to -- I'd like you know like. I'd like -- quarterback you don't quarterback before their young quarterback before -- but he has. -- still have to pass the ball effectively they still need to do like Manning said. They weathered the pocket roll out hello we wanna look at -- don't need to be effective in the same things that get the ball down field and in the market today. Which is probably -- Mark Sanchez is not the starting quarter wrecked the New York Jets injuries aside. I didn't you know. We like to joke you know conceivable obviously it's not looked accurate -- the level we have but. Would you look at the Russian production deputy literally turned the ball over yet like at 2% turnover rate. He went a lot more effective than people give them credit for pop art center -- here is to turn over every every touchdown it is I mean that's in total. And they'll look at just twenty internal divisive for the jets and fourteen total touchdowns on the quarterback position. Let me -- LP made an effort -- that -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- For thirteen and rent a one out the quarterback position all season. I mean that you know it -- to get a play quarterback in NFL not a not a they. You know whether we could -- in the pocket and aren't you just can't get it done so. -- you get it done it doesn't matter is it as much as what are you IQ are you effectively minimizing mistakes to get the ball on the field. You know very efficiently and you know -- but that systematic without -- I think it's important to me as a result. I have a feeling I know the answer but it Dexter wants me to ask you. -- team pal Tim Tebow looks with your overall quarterback rating. Well I'll tell you what he had a career real quarterback rating of 81 point two would last you would've been fourteenth in the NFL. -- better than I would have expected his what you're sang what. Better than I would have expected to. When the Brooklyn Republican and a streak of 2011 and I did this story and it's important also Sports Illustrated. Each week after week and every game that -- the one with the most effective quarterback on the field. I you might -- complete original 45% of -- passes but he you know you run and tied for seventy yards. -- -- an -- per pass attempt you know he wasn't and the ball pretty it would more effective than people give him credit for what -- got to develop into that pocket -- you have to be a you know the consensus has no but. When you look at the total performance the last -- with the ability ticket bought on the field by whatever means necessary. What more effective than he might have appeared with a guy and that would you know anyone looked like it says that will quarterback rating it's almost perfect you're better -- you almost always win. And when the Broncos once it was that he was a better more efficient quarterback on the field. Can you make a statistical case for the bills to beat the patriots Sunday. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- The patriots sent sent -- eighteen and one against the bills okay. They've won by an average score thirty to -- in those nineteen and totally gotten even better about what they stop at the one wants that cared about what their average game and -- also civil amyloid. Is it 33 of the thirteen -- victory. This may be the most dominant stretch of football once it was and other in the history of the NFL. I think that that what happened -- about the public Nebraska -- I would stay in the big Batman -- night. I mean that's how lopsided this isn't. I mean that's not what the perfect storm for the patriots beat him you know rookie coach rookie quarterback. A team with a bad defense you know a lot of at 321 our defense -- audited last year the worst of what the football field the ball well. I don't the other patriots don't you know don't blow the team out regardless of who's playing wide receiver. You know this is always -- with historical -- problem with because to be wanting different we're talking about tiger and his history -- you know Bethpage or something like them -- numbers saying the patriots history -- each year the teacher to divert people's. Same helmet sticker I mean a -- it's a conversation it's enjoyable but. You gotta tell they had you know reporters a locker room that hasn't been hopeful for so what the effect I don't know -- do I agree with -- personal inaudible because -- history. And out of what we do for example are we picked every game every week against the spread and ethical principle that insider -- that every -- and 22 different qualities that. Pot and we don't -- think that the department we look at every team every -- Statistical look bad as well as -- as epic games is -- -- be -- that unlike any other deputies before. Like any other in the senate and afterwards so I agree with you on apathy that doesn't change the fact that. The patriots could get over the Buffalo Bills for a decade and like any other -- as well. Tom Brady lifetime is 22 and two against the pretty -- that's not bad at 54 touchdown passes and like seventeen interceptions that. But if you're gonna quarterback in the history of what all the hundreds more victories and losses. I think -- like off one of seven nobody can quote that it is remarkable we almost don't appreciate how good he is we really don't I think we've by the -- like. You call us today he'll rake is correct doctor. Run away with it and everyone's gonna complain about the Red Sox. It's -- people -- -- but aren't ready but I don't think they quite appreciate it great if BBC one satellite and greatness but they're watching. And and a guy who you know could put optical equipment -- but it opens up the wins and losses adequate at all going on I didn't know there's been no better winner. Ever except maybe autograph can't play in the forties in the audience he. There's been no great winner and put all the talk Brady and that's what it's all about I don't know what I don't know if they can be higher compliment for a for a player in the and in football. Yeah Basil is the area where we part ways I don't because when you started -- redeemed. Teams test individuals -- good friend good boy nobody loves of her -- of -- what does that exist in the -- but when you start attributing. Single stat to doctors on the field for -- that if some poisoning Bartlett he is the most important person is that also I don't regularly now as you like to make. If I think your -- -- negating some of that with your argue is the most importantly perhaps lead and has more to do with that win and loss than anybody else -- capsule and here's and here's the analogy works. It's like calling someone a majority owner owns 20% the team there not a majority on the highest percent owner of their 20% or whatever wealth the team owns three or 4%. The bats that's the problem hours after the when the troubles that commitment. That at all understood any of the ultimate team sport but then again it there's no. There's no more important positions what. You're absolutely right to take him once that that that's the area were stuck guys just blow my mind because it's it's it's not. That's already reported at the quarterback he did not. You know you don't -- pretty simple. Death probably but when you did it cyclist Tom Brady won a game. Vote Republican but it's awkward moment is that if the player singularly most responsible for that when a lot but what should we can I can talk on the defensive side of the football that we could. The tickets have not quite simple and almost a decade now. It because they can't -- past -- the greatest. In team history the way we look at it what it's without pre patriot and a 56 the -- have to look at the yards you'll. You look at that you take it -- -- the quarterback -- applied to pass defense and has an incredible corporation the team's success brought all this. And the number one team they don't want to the patriots history with the 2000 reputed to. Only you know went on to -- 21 games and road you know the consequences of history of football went back to back the -- The most victories over -- ESP ebony and which is typically at 130 with me. Two -- he'll have ever done that and because of that 2000 page with the best. Seasons in franchise history so you need it. -- don't know both sides I agree but operated kept you know kept that up in the Gatwick and it's really been that they have not had simple hello happy and 2000. The -- website is cold hard football facts dot com I recommend you go and check it out and I carry you get as you said you've got an insider aspect of it as well the people can sign up for in and get some information that the rest of us don't get. Yeah I feel like I invite you look at it and check out portable ball back inside what we do we provide hardcore analysis with -- that got -- at it like to bet on pro football. Political ball back inside Acosta got an adult for these guys you deal we have ten delicate doctor to get the WTI listeners. You're critical to our football back dot com quickly go inside a bus and sign up received patent at the coupon -- WE. Guys that coupon code WEEI. The -- -- -- development I received the ball that's inside based opulent. If you if you completed this interview appropriately you do that you would -- wait there's more. I -- we always appreciate the time thank you all right got a they're trying to carry -- from cold hard football facts dot com our guest. Well take quick break we'll get right back to the calls that you will -- Ian O'Connor from ESPN new York at 925. -- Sports Radio WEEI.