May 2, 2013|
Mike Mutnansky handicaps and previews the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby. Mut's podcast features Jessica Paquette (Suffolk Downs Racing Analyst) and Dick Jerardi (Xpressbet/Daily Racing Form).
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
Ducky derby won 39 like but if he was view is we break down the derby. And joining me here in studio just -- thought it was the -- handicap for. At the great Suffolk -- just -- to see you again Mike thank you for having me back last year on derby day you and I sat at Suffolk downs and gave no respect to the eventual winner I'll have another none whatsoever my reasons last year for being so completely wrong on the derby were. I think get by Doug O'Neill biased number one Texas history in racing and that's that the meat problem not handicapping problem and then. For some reason get the derby day I disrespect the West Coast horses on -- view but I I forget about. All the horses out less -- say who ran in New York -- Kentucky. I'm gonna try not to make that mistake again handicapping this year I did the exact same thing I think it's because it probably for YouTube being. And east coaster through and through we just have such an East Coast sports biased. And that these verses lasted -- last year it was proven wrong because the list -- sources hands downward much stronger than east sources ended up being that way the entire year and looking back on that hurt me throughout that Triple Crown -- weather was the preakness problem another came back and -- at the Breeders' Cup day. It was a mess throughout about a tried a more open mind. It was just awful this year supposed. Is get a lot of attention would Rick Pitino source gold sense who will be -- in the conversation -- terms of the the field itself they'll go off his race eleven on Saturday -- Kentucky Derby Suffolk downs as the place to be you'll pay about that. Up 630 yourself. You like the field going -- -- a talented group three year old this year. I think this is a very wide open group and I think there's a big divide between what's a nice way to start you don't like this yeah. I think there's a big divide between there's about ten or so they actually have a legitimate chance and then -- ten and I'm kind of scratching my head as to why they're even in the race. So there's that big divide. The top five or so I think are quite good but the rest of them Woolsey. I feel like that. Did because of the derby and because it's the -- dream of a lot of horse owners and breeders and jockeys agents and everyone involved they all wanna get to this race so inevitably you get. And a source -- hitting the board and and hurting me on Saturday B get a black -- who is being good on turf in his way and -- on synthetic. And they say -- -- get it will give this course a shot. In the derby charming kitten yesterday's other horses that -- Outpaced her pedigree here but the owners want to take a shot. It black onyx has won a race besides his maiden race -- of course -- the late edition giants finish. He's only won it -- -- how -- -- optional claiming company out at a better the only even steeper than New York. If you. If you want to look at -- what you -- here or not it would never belittle anyone for chasing their dreaming going to the derby and you have a wonderful time finishing last. -- you get that with a horse like I guess they should that a black Alex have been charming kid. We look at the races has never run on the dirt and -- tried here for the first time I understand it's worked for horses. In the past who have shown success animal kingdom recently came you know it went the day well we saw Lleyton synthetic and made -- rate one of the derby. This lack of speed in this year's derby I guess is the most confusing thing to me because normally by this time a year you have 5678. Horses. That are run and a hundred buyers be figures which is what I use in my handicapping. This year there's a handful and the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby at seven a two or has never cracked a hundred in their buyers speed cell. It's it's a slow group isn't it it -- It's a very slow group but that's not to say that the race itself is going to be devoid of pace because there a couple of I think she front runners that are -- to get involved early. -- I just don't think they're capable of going all that fast I think this is an evenly matched slow release ever and kind of equally slow. When you say -- front runners are would you agree with me that a horse like falling sky morning line 1515 to one. Who is -- to bullet workouts and the only -- the -- everyone is going in the front is -- those forces that. At fifty to one might -- be 500 to one because they're gonna go to the front and try to go wire to wire a mile a quarter. I think the only role he could possibly play in this race is a spoiler for Goldman cents. Google AdSense would if you and contests on we have a pretty legitimate chance of being a factor going gate to wire. Falling sky he's gotten progressively worse with each start this year as the distances have increased as the competition's gotten better he is another one with diet giant. Finished every goes I've completely forgot his name already that I got to the horse is okay boy isn't it. Then I just think has minimal business and that's for. You bring up pacing your your your talking about without getting into the race maybe the way you look at -- I'm curious how you handicap. The derby because your handicap races of the tracking any camper. There are what there's some 34 horse field the -- of handicapping a Suffolk downs with horses that -- really really slow this is twenty horses. This and it it's just that way -- -- it's it's not negative I'm just saying compared to look you know. It's a different animal -- Kentucky Derby on Tuesday September. This past weekend but so when your handicapping a race like that and you look at twenty. Forces like this some horse that should not be in the field forty Starr is it with the pace with the race might look like. For -- this derby in particular it was all about a certain horse from the beginning. I've been kind of a nerd at this winter and now been obsessively watching racing even more than I normally do an all weekend all the time. And -- -- of -- sources from their meeting went on and I've been keeping an extensive notes that orbit like from the beginning so I think -- I think he's just head and shoulders above the rest of them and he has a running style that is conducive to winning that -- He's a closer but he is not that kind of closer -- comes from dead last and we'll have to weave through nineteen tired horses he should be it. Towards the back but not all the way back there. So for me with this race in particular it's it's always been -- and I've been trying to piece together who I think we'll go with. I I've been on the the orbit where -- out here for couple days when you talk about your handicapping how you look at it you looked at pace in you have to move on or girl when. For me when the derby comes around a Triple Crown races Breeders' Cup. When Mike -- starts talking about big workouts that's when I listen if you look at Mike Welch writes for the daily racing form for those who were. Listing on her -- -- you have all horse racing. I've become a huge believer in. When he touts forces -- a big workouts and go down the line recently. On the animal kingdom street sense corporal all horses that might well push because work -- in particular. They've been praising or this week up and down the last two weeks and should've brought the horse to Churchill Downs so I liked him I'm going in. I like -- one Mike Welch started pushing him. I don't like the seven at two price I went that morning line came out when you're betting twenty horses and -- is on the prices of command. I that choked down my angered I think I'm gonna bet on the derby and seven to shop and -- -- -- scare me off the source right now is that everyone loves some of these. The favorite at seven at two and that's fine with him I'm trying to present long shots and my thought picture right above for the price a little bit but with him no matter how many times I look at it can't. Talked myself off of him the one criticism I have of the source. If you may have noticed the Florida derby in the post -- he got incredibly washed out it was not a hot Dayton the president the derby will probably make him even more of a handful and he apparently normally is. The idea Air -- story that he scooted a lift that was being started up. Courses through it everything I wouldn't let that -- offered him my worst -- invisible monsters and tried to dump in Africa so a a spoof it absolutely everything that doesn't really bother me but the -- the tendency to get so washed out and possibly leave his race behind McGee I do have a problem with. But I still that's the only criticism I find for the source. -- they gambling perspective if you saw him get really washed out Saturday and saw him freaking out would you three Q would you cancel your tickets now -- you where you bet on the matter what. No because he did them in the Florida derby and he turned in such a tremendous effort I remember watching behind the gate at -- -- it does he do that every time he looks full. But apparently that is his normal and he console run at if orbits the abortion or put on top would you wanna put around him in this race to get prices. I really really like ox -- up until. Now it's 530 yesterday afternoon when he drew the you hole it's really not ideal for him this is the horse has just been plagued by bad luck throughout his three year old season. But he is one that if the rain forecast for Churchill comes through. He really moves -- that -- don't think Gary Stevens came out of retirement to it just finished behind the pack in the Kentucky Derby either. Yeah I think that that was a horse with -- Never truck outlook as a while we're there was that come on there was this stretch there where it was easy to do what you're right the last couple years what he's done. Optimizer is a horse that I had no respect for he wants a big races -- -- interest thing but if you like or. And he talked yourself and all the it's my lucky day because that's a horse that was run down by or. In the in the Florida derby or is going to be seven -- Q for a one maybe 92 we really drifts up. It's my lucky day is -- between sixteen and twenty to one of you like or why can't talk you when it's my lucky day. At 45 maybe six times the price on Saturday. I was never impressed by him I wasn't impressed by him when he had that impressive race Rey beach antibody. And I thought his effort behind -- to start in his last -- in the Florida derby is actually really flat performance I think this is one that just we'll have some real trouble going a mile and a quarter. But I wouldn't trade talk you off of him either I don't have a passionate dislike of him in the spice is not about using I don't. Love him but I do think that or was most likely winner if my and his common sense trying to convince myself will buy like or. How can -- it's my lucky day so we'll be somewhere on my tickets I don't know how much but beyond there are also don't know what to do -- -- on mountain top -- got five and here. Arizona is. I guess statistically is best chance he's run fast races he's undefeated he looked tremendous. And Tampa Bay. You look pretty good in the would. Maybe not as good people wanted to look you're shaking your idea that you will bill. I was there passing grade I was OK I was there and I was expecting to be blown away by him. And physically he didn't impress me didn't impress me the way he galloped out he's a lovely horse he's undefeated. And I can't remember a time of course is going into the derby undefeated and is getting as little respect is that sources getting unaffordable one and I don't want -- fort you get the distance that I -- that you had either. And I don't like I don't think he galloped out powerfully after the wood and he will have to go farther -- -- Couple others here let's start with another Pletcher horse revolutionary who. And is number one he's worked out wonders this week Mike Welch another saying how good he is looked. He always runs his race he looked down those running lines he's -- for the most part always running hard at the end. He gets mister Churchill Downs on -- on the derby Saturday Calvin Burrell he draws the three hole he's gonna write the rail. And it'll probably give that pretty good Pletcher Burrell but other horses they're sort top 5:6 morning line don't be shocked the revolutionary won this race on Saturday. He's my second choice I think he's one that it wouldn't surprise me -- he wins he does seem like a course that finds trouble. But the thing I like most about -- misty may find some trouble but he also finds a way to win that whether the whether six was so impressed that he looked completely beaten. And with the horse the so fearless Calvin Burrell is known for being quite fearless I think they'll just push themselves through very likely on the rail and make their run. Absolutely and he beat departing that day last -- Louisiana dirty mean at the fastest -- in 93 buyer departing give back and looked really good in the Illinois derby they'll wait for the preakness. -- that you were there would day which have been at Normandy invasion Chad Brown having a casting on all. Has not look great this week but again the for the restaurant -- -- and they like. On Normandy invasion behind. I am still trying to figure why have they are passed on a jump ship from revolutionary to Normandy invasion he did gal pal on the way and I'll say that. But he does from all the things I'm reading and seeing this is a course that apparently has lost quite a bit of weight. This -- small horse he's a small owned horse and UN. And with courses that can be very tough to keep weight on them especially our friends and if he's not really coming into this race 110%. And arriving this is tough -- Rick. Pitino is getting a lot of attention nationwide because he owns 5% of -- who looked awesome in the sand in the injury of all the preps. I I would argue that was the best Kevin Kruger gets retains the mouth for Doug O'Neill you and I just respected -- last year -- more respect for this horse this year. I am rooting for Kevin -- he was a Suffolk for awhile he read at Suffolk in 2007 really -- and use a really nice Katie did very well. I definitely a writer with some talent is like he didn't lose a map for that right essentially bank. -- I think he's really lucky to retain the -- after that and that's my biggest concern in this race. Is it's the derby it's your first Kentucky Derby cure the adrenaline is going to be pumping yeah of course that's a front runner. Who really it's kind of tough on the front -- how much treat them to be able to rate him I think he might engage a little bit too much like he did in the -- police say not intentionally mean but. At a critical local connection there's. We averaging four I like the local connection in no we had a south recruiting connection here this -- put out a few years but. Job as war on the outside. Had a great closing effort in the bluegrass with second to -- is on -- and Tampa today. But not run all that fast -- it's the best success was on that synthetic. One back in the bluegrass fifteen to one it is -- any shot the -- up late this race pick up the pieces have you noticed where his only two off the board finishes have come. With a -- there at Churchill Downs ago. There were drawn a line through me draw a line war gave him off list. So it sounds like you want or on top -- revolutionary second and you want treatment try to make our expo I am neither I just have faith in Gary Stevens and the rail advocates and keeping the faith. That the other races and on the rest of the day is is a pretty good day. I wanna go backwards one date to Friday for those who listen this after Friday may have missed it but. Pataki -- came up really really really good this year and I I you could name six or seven -- to -- you like. What -- like in this race because there's so much talent in the oaks on Friday night. I think this is such a fantastic race an awesome race I've had a couple of these trainers are wishing -- run their -- in the mail preferences that they -- to tackle the derby. At this point -- -- you could you commit -- -- Julie was running in the derby. I think that horse would have a huge job on Saturday she's that good she was freaky impressive in her last race in your shades of secretary freaking. I am trying to beat her and trying to be a little bit -- here at the -- I respect that so we came here to do I -- the favorite trying I'm actually gone back to my. Little trip to aqueduct on wood Memorial Day with close hatches she was most -- of course that's -- Close -- getting a ton of respect. From the workouts this week against some of the try to be dreaming usually of the two horses I've looked at extensively. One as midnight lucky because again the work -- invade Iran a Baffert board Baffert never. Very bad read as he's got the horse derby and my feeling is he's he's not. Mad about it because he knows he's got a good job the -- Midnight lucky 92 on the inside and it's the way the race sets up you mentioned that. The derby being fast this race looks so fast on paper. That it thirty to one. Ken McPeek impure fun is the only closer in this field the only legit sort of one run closer. Left Peru is had a great history at Churchill Downs so I don't -- up three beat tribute Julia I like close matches but. On a ton of people those with pure fun and with midnight lucky on the inside. I read your minute bucket and she is a very talented filly. And the someone park oaks there have been some criticisms that the time may not be the most legitimate because the track was so lightning fast. But we saw plum pretty go from the and one part coaxed -- win the -- very impressed with that is a legitimate prep. And you're an interesting closer to getting first time point 62 which can't. Hurt you're gonna be handicapping all these races on Saturday. How do you dare pick between -- stand in port of entry in the turf classic which. Somebody made this analogy on Twitter is like oral restaurant neglect in the appetizers more than the meal. You convince me that -- standpoint of entry is a better match of the -- will get the derby a couple hours later. Hands down I am so excited to finally see these teams square off. And I'm right with you I really as a racing fan I don't wanna pick between the two of them I like them both so separately and have really enjoyed watching both of their campaigns. I just want to be good race I want to be the two of them down to the wired I think point of entry going smiling on the turf has. A slight edge. Maybe. Say we can make the case again. Neither way on these two wars and I think about how the regular reports we've seen in the US in a long long time and finally square off and in -- -- people to. Before we talk about the event Saturday at -- Suffolk downs you mention the off track. You like or you like revolutionary you like black got a like ox -- and would you handicapping change at all if it came up really really wet. On Saturday now that the the process that don't look great because the track dries out so quickly this -- showers but -- it comes -- what some of listen this is there -- -- move up in your top three if it's really went on -- As a coincidence many of my tops elections have great off track category she were to doing that but some -- shut. That if you like over not track I -- like palace announced particularly over an off track. And it's the only way -- kitten hasn't shot of it pours. Yeah I looked at charming kitten a second time for that wet track breeding and -- you make a case they're the ones that I. I said -- -- -- Brian line a battle lines of battle is bred to run on this all day and it became up -- -- base in Europe my guess is the horse has dealt with a ton of moisture. Out of a war front out of war front I just. That's the one that may get thrown the bottom my ticket I don't horse has no shot it's fast. But lines of battle thirty to one -- little bit of moisture. And that's why throw him at a big price I give us -- when I was there last you're given a terrible picks. Derby ditto every replace Stephenson that's why they -- What's the day going to be like because I remember like this great music. Food trucks -- great food. Great atmosphere and all the racing good one. You pretty much nailed it it's Boston's fourth annual biggest invest in tacky derby party to party starts around 2 o'clock -- goes through the derby. -- be alive band a lot of fun things going on -- and I'll be trying to pick some winners but you better this year than I did last year I really hope. What and it's a good. It's a great party to the first time -- the very party last year and in the big screen outside but also inside there's so many TVs and you know so much space to move around this is not something where you're going to be. Packed you know there have been these derby parties we really can't move there's a lot of people there it's a great atmosphere -- fun. But there's space to round have your own space of you want to sit in just handicap. There's plenty of space is defined that support them who wants socialized to. -- he would act on as well there's really something for everyone you can have the Kentucky Derby sort of your way in via social hour. By yourself as you want so where your Beth hadn't come down it's going to be a great day and day if I had not been fired for the handicap in there. I'd be back this year I'm an opening date June 1 -- -- is opening. Real quick the church will be selling on Saturday until about those that you brought them in north studio today. He's going to be hot items on Saturday we have made some wonderful Boston's strong teacher it's. It -- with all the proceeds going to one fund Boston mayor. Fabulously designed they're really comfortable you fifteen dollars each and again total proceeds go to one and Boston. Must have even there. You'll be making your picks Libya on Suffolk downs blog as well the blog is already up and downs blind has my derby and oaks analysis. I try to handicap early and often. And hopefully we'll pick a couple of -- Jessica likes or revolutionary an ox bow as your top three Jessica pocket the handicap for Suffolk downs. Always a pleasure and athletic Saturday YouTube. We continue with our preview of Kentucky Derby won 39 comes up Saturday about 6:24. Eastern time. I joining us on across the board is so one of the great voice of horse racing in our country -- national or street reporter. For a long time also a columnist Philadelphia Daily News 29 years experience. Covering the races and it clips award winner. By 2006 for his great coverage -- -- all -- Dick Girardi and the Philadelphia. Daily news joining us stick -- derby. I thank you micro you to. Let's get your take on the field itself because it when I'm used to it will connect Kentucky Derby handicapping you ducky derby. There are 789 horses that are brought in the -- speed figures triple digits are hundreds. Not that many this year does that mean it's a bad crop -- -- crop in 2013. I think slow -- -- -- to be determined -- obviously are. Aren't a lot of haven't peaked yet figure -- unusual to have this view at triple project fire at this stage. What is -- adamant that that's pretty consistent -- the word courses for the most part one don't think prep races as but a lot of walk shots warning. A lot of almost come in pretty good credentials -- your your rights product experience group at least at this stage. And without being said one of the horses that has not run in the hundreds yet is your morning line favorite in Mike but tag -- making orbit. You're 78 -- they were you surprised that or ends up as the favorite at least heading into. The weekend Dick based on how good -- on always bid and that lack of a hundred -- speak for or. Yeah I would've been a week ago. And what happened is -- Had the best work for the week on Monday and that really become a big bankers doing. The best that the last minute so I think they're really shift in the Euro over the last couple days so I'm not surprised that Mike made the right line opposite the public what the term and the other the favorite is. But he just try to protect the public doing an Arctic power -- lot of -- on the site that. The F for me that the Mike Welch handicapping angle of it of his work out report to become vital -- it just too many recently whether it's an animal kingdom or street Santa Barbara where. Mike is pointed out they've had the best work of the week and he's gonna go on that it's affected. My derby handicapping the way -- -- hey -- how much do the work out for you affect how you select your your top three or four on Saturday. -- except where lemonade or -- Reagan and -- a brand new law are rendered. It's usually really good at what he does he's got there or where he's been so reliable local. They can't hear yourself. You know it's affecting prices -- horses. -- -- -- is this a perfect you know eighty with big brown. He was certainly a reason why -- -- could be picked Bernard barker -- amount that. I was looking for a long shot but it's perfect for any -- child deaths of four was really well and our our our Arctic a lot of that would achieve the super practicing -- Mike is that it worked listening to -- that Arab horse does tracked them or may be in you know case operate them dramatically -- -- maybe thought it would be or. We're talking with security Philadelphia Daily News review and handicapping. Conducted every 139 this weekend determine the race pace here Dick with the -- lack of natural speed does that mean we have a slow pace that might set up for to a faster horses Saturday Churchill Downs. Let not -- -- -- getting out run really fast file alliance at least at this stage and that's what that Arctic triggered ultimately tell you about art that final on. But there's not a lot of these groups are. But out of the new point system. We get a couple of these great are you or operate stakes are against it -- stretch stakes that would be an ear. And would distort the early age -- I think your. Your battery appointed as the church you're not making -- an accurate. -- the gold and -- all star. Spiritual there are really no control front or that often -- that the mark -- somebody's on a mission that you don't expect there to really look like to speed and I think gold census wearily faster. All of those two. So I think there's a chance gold set battle against the rock clear what may not have to call out there. Why no up as of a week ago two weeks ago your story your column and the daily racing form -- you work share where you were leaning yet yet I know you have to make picks by now. Let's talk about your top four and go through how you see this race unfolding day. Expect this set might that's our picture in the paper and -- picking golden sense. Eight because of the pace -- very the shape of -- race I think most of the contenders. All of the golden cents or being attacked courses. The exception of Paris auto technical get a -- troops sitting at birth or but I like the fact that. The only contender with his style -- which I think is gonna give them a -- reversal of the war set. And Normandy invasion. It's my lucky day all courses are going to be looking for the same space on the racetrack which that's actually what elements of traffic pictures. So cure colds that's first it's our lucky day it's probably my. But I think it's to get Shaq and let the extract that or work out into -- got to be in my top three certainly think -- -- accurate portrait. Particularly echo article sent to support a while he got here -- results are yet he still a super war. Well a we have a similar opinion except I think the orb height -- as scared me off a little bit but. I thought -- -- it's my lucky day -- -- or books so good in the Florida derby the horse he beat. Is fifteen to 1 severe on the morning line opens his -- places not. Yeah a national pot Pletcher type trainer or that Elvis Trujillo is not a Johnny Velasquez type writer but. To meet at fifteen to one if you what if you like golden sense then. It's my lucky day doesn't he he he could have that same sort of golden sense trip and be there whether -- -- the mile to go I would think. Yeah I I think he. But he proved degenerate Florida they stressed about the and that -- -- really into that you want salt. Or the Florida derby which it was a it was just a race they get to the next race. Yet mark points in that race. But he really was -- it for the actress that was written one war Iraq -- group. January races that he was good enough and I think they were bad 80% for before its European he's got back a hundred that your party can have a big chance. And you can get overlooked in the -- like Kurt Oregon. It happens every year somewhere -- What maybe -- -- be most aware and ransacked and well that's not a dramatic difference for people are and to look at -- source about. Eight. From reading your stuff Dick you're a guy that I know looks at value looks at morning lines is it pretty safe to say that the Pletcher Burrell Kabul revolutionary -- going to be. Anywhere near that morning line attendee will attend -- -- people love to -- Calvin Burrell inside on that near that one hold every. But it's a person paper -- all that sex but. They Eric gonna grow up that source has more better credentials super stripper or walk. They only recently got about like that was because Albert an -- -- greater security error of course did -- now you're right it's a great point. He really should probably be a little higher than that a lot but I think like the secretary good job he could benefit the public. Make sure that any -- just -- he and the opposite the what this spot. And Pletcher has got five in here you mentioned. Varies on how you met we talk a revolutionary. Over analyzing the horse that we all talked about late last year and is he just a horse -- that didn't develop from age to age three is that why he sits here at at fifteen to one what they Iran on Pletcher on Saturday. You're -- interest in coming back really fast arms and last year and have a strange race. -- being based in -- so what is for start back this year many ran really well lost our nose reps that program -- It before they can it was a 99 -- equities were really gonna go -- but you're right over analyze 8688 arsonist races this year. With the Arkansas derby by more than or elect but it was -- -- slow -- so I am quite sure what's making and he looks more like -- worse. It's he's gonna make an impact scar on her war. Is it maybe -- some -- courses in the stretch but he just puzzled look to me -- course is set where you just a real. Help fast the year. I'm sure you get this question all the time depending what tractor -- we're gonna have a lot of you know our listeners who were there it's up and downs on Saturday some token handicaps some -- there to socialize drink. And that a few races so people last few. How should I bet the Kentucky Derby that maybe don't wanna handicap Dick what what what's your suggestion of people who just wanna bet. The race is a standalone. And have some fun there on Saturday. I mean really it's a couple of old are your risk tolerance. What are your critics or just in the Arab far are Americans who want this for our. Now are under these -- Obviously there is about to wrap at all that would be something like that but -- just don't want -- on. Think about that a couple of factors which is just where it forces as you know or some sort and and potential pay -- rejecting it because of course people respect are all operations. These are the two -- -- -- -- the past ox -- A couple of Obama or did you like it or you want shot out of the -- Suspenders you know aware that they expect that -- had anything about the track what you figured out what all of a bigger. Last leverage or is it in the in the old. All right so as you look at this appeal both the new points system predicted did the point system work do you think this is something that sticks going forward instead of the grated earnings. These races these prep races having a sign pointed that work this year. I think so I certainly there's this year's interest in Israel or -- wanna I wanna be aired -- -- opera atmosphere in our effort to. Arctic and Arctic -- I think they -- emphasized but later preferences. It -- -- preparations. And they were that the emphasized hero racing sprinting. And racist restricted -- If our order tweet yet I think one thing you might get more points that are rehearsed I think that's I think that's repeal the short term rates. Interestingly we're real simple or Breeders' Cup but he beta. Article -- That that a burial that and the other thing I think it. But the Phillies and put points on figures were streaming of Julio on paper is gonna not be a top five or situation here. -- secret rocket you can make points as miserable or restrict the so I think that might be up from the look at our overall were people talking about it. I think it's got. At the end people knew exactly what was gonna take an extra -- I think the greater earnings somewhat skeptical. Well you mentioned the -- I forgot to ask can you beat trimming -- Julia who looks like a standout buyers speed figure wise. Friday night in the -- Yet it sectors -- would -- be shorter here. Actually everybody know that -- the bigger government problem -- forever. And eclectic Napster like. Are lucky. -- are trying to protect their sources which -- router or -- are frequently treat -- -- that. I -- it and so put in the mornings here. And this is the best oaks I have ever seen. 60. There have been a couple of dispute though is running out there and -- system. Mercury Jolie is gonna be sure there were divorced there's a question that's just where last respects. 21 relaxed warm Florida derby art and runs to second best in orbit it's as. It's unbelievable it should be a fun week and we hope the weather holds off you don't make it to us up and downs -- Churchill Mohegan Sun. You know Saturday's Kentucky Derby day and Dick is joining us today. By virtue of our great friends and expressed that dot com the legal licensed no -- way to play the race is when you can't make it to the track visit expressed -- dot com. You get a free Kentucky Derby wagering guide and up to a hundred. And 25 dollar bonus it is really easy to sign up I've been there I'm a member. It is simple -- we appreciate them set us up with the UN. -- -- your top four golden cents it's my lucky day orbit and Veras Donald good luck on Saturday and appreciate taken couple minutes. -- -- -- -- -- What they just a pocket of Suffolk downs they're huge Suffolk downs party. On Saturday if you're in the area make sure their starts at 2 o'clock it is a great time was a pleasure. Odd to be their last year and Dick Girardi curse you were friends and expressed that he can't be anywhere. Long on expressed that dot com they'll take area. I terms in my approaching the derby this year. I kind of feel like Jessica does I'd like or for a long time I just hate the price I think that orbit the most likely winner. In the race on Saturday but at seven it to have a hard time stomach king. Pick in the favorite in the derby so I think or the most likely winner but it's my lucky days the horse and Al -- morning line fifteen to one. Has -- competitive speed figures and his last race out. Finished two links behind or if like or so much about like it's my lucky day. So focus on those two. In the top and as always do and Lou and guys -- -- that they give you five horses in my exact the box and trifecta box seats by forces -- worse is that. Our box together and the exact and try. And a beat or maybe it's my lucky day fifteen to one golden cents at 521. Is a horse that might get left on the board might be a better price of five to one these West Coast horses. Sometimes that happens and Republican forces are going to be at the front of the pack panel that this is. Necessarily a race where a mine that bird. I 2009 sort of closes I don't see a ton of speed here because of that I want horses toward the front Goldman cents is one of those horses. Revolutionaries won the closer I do you think can make Iran because of Calvin Burrell as a source always fights and if I'm gonna play guys trifecta boxes. I got to include them because of Burrell because gonna get the running style he wants to -- And what can we between horses in a field like this it's Calvin Burrell so that be the four ports in my box and then golden as golden -- Like the throw a bomb in their every year girl whose -- -- 150 to one. Dallas Stewart the trainer wasn't sure the sports we gonna get in. And so we sort of positioned. Nearby instead wolf we -- if there's defections horses get hurt more on that list. Will race and unlike some of these horse that they got the field late. -- sold Dallas Stewart Robby -- Robert prep and all the time like it again we're gonna race itself 51. Horse that can make one run late and clump up. I don't horse can can be part of a trifecta may part of a -- effectively played those. Are on derby day bank or it's my lucky day that sort -- 12. Either one of those horses winning I could see an -- likely winner but an Olympic favorite so it's my lucky day 1515. To one. Second place in the Florida derby any -- for the training of to get this horse ready -- training great. That's where I -- I appreciate you listening to across the board good luck on derby day parties have.