Apr 14, 2013|
The Red Sox conducted their mid-point meetings in preparation for the 2013 draft last week. Red Sox amateur scouting director Amiel Sawdaye takes stock of where the team stands as it readies for this year's draft, and the differences in preparing for the team's highest pick (No. 7 overall) in 20 years. Keith Law of ESPN also joins the show to discuss candidates for the Sox at the No. 7 overall pick.
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
Welcome back for another edition of minor detail. It may seem early but it's not too early to start picky about the amateur draft particularly given the position. In which to read -- find themselves this year for the first time in twenty years the Red Sox have a top ten pick in the draft this one the number seven overall selection. That same spot where the team drafted Trot Nixon in 1993. In that also worsen superstars have been acquired over the years there have been guys like Frank Thomas a future hall of Famer. -- young award winner Clayton her shop Prince Fielder who have been plucked at the number -- an overall pick. But one out of every four picks this spot have all of failed to reach the big leagues and nothing is guaranteed in terms of the talent available at the position. Right now we're roughly in the middle of the draft planning process the Red Sox just conducted their mid -- meetings at Fenway Park this past week. To define their strategy regarding this counting process going forward. Over the next couple months building up to the draft in June. This week will be joined by ESPN's Keith law take stock of some of the players who were in consideration for the Red Sox at the number seven pick. But first we'll talk with Red Sox director of amateur scouting on the -- Sunday about where the team is in its preparations for the draft here he is. I mean -- -- so much for joining appreciate it. Vladimir so -- at a kind of interest in stage with regard to preparations for the draft I guess that one could you know call this roughly halfway point. In the in the draft starting season. What does that mean from a practical input about what you guys have done to this point in these you know human and -- games in. In in what remains to be done going forward how how are things changing at this juncture and in early to mid April. I think -- obviously this year we weren't. Bryant different very different. Am part of -- -- we've ever been in the past there were picking in the top ten and most likely have a better sense for who's going to be an uptick in in in the past week you know picked in the twenties and and you -- -- guessing. So I think this year you know -- to -- the -- point we we get an idea. A number of guys really feel like have a strong chance to be an -- And and then what our concerns they'd be in those guys looking forward. And and and you know it that we we can kind of gather around. Have small meetings and say okay. You know -- -- -- we need to get more looks on this personally need to see this this person -- last year we need to see this person. You know really need to see him play center fielder whatever it may be so we can identify. More specific pointed questions that we may have. And and you the next 68 weeks to try to answer them. And that and Dan and and that's probably a little bit of -- unique. Situation indicated in the past. Andy you really didn't have you don't eat you can do they expect that you probably can't do with that -- -- -- accuracy. You know with the with the idea that that these these group of players will be our pitchers election. And so I think that's that's kind of where we are you know we've we've spent a lot of days out on the road scouting in order to continue -- more. We need to be extremely critical. The players that weren't there were taken because obviously AM. We're at we're gonna have you know worded different position and and we want to make sure we're in the right guys so. Good chance -- -- every group this week in hopefully. Informal. Will be a -- that we have identified in and hopefully scouting the right guys. So when you talk about that process of of getting down to the level of specificity I mean how many guys you know in how many guys and -- are you able to say roughly. Would you be bearing down on when you consider the number seven pick because. Paris -- vastly more than seven players. That your considering because obviously what happens over the next few months is going to dictate a lot of of who you would consider -- it. You know is it 101520. Guys who remain in the running at number seven. It's hard to say I mean I think that that obviously. The -- you wanna give yourself some sort of flexibility in the draft so. The idea. Just identifying certain number of players since. And and and and focusing on those guys maybe a little bit them. I guess archaic to some degree and you know you want that you want. Yeah -- city indicate. I think it's funny have a draft works you know no two teams have. This same exact draft board in and you know we're -- seven and 45 and and it probably pretty good chance believe it or not that if we if we -- our top twenty guys wearing it to this -- So you know he -- you you want to spend. And at that time and and and also. Is the manpower and resources. -- this Gallup not just that you not small group been in focus on seven. And the two wanna focus on until the thick -- off because as you know. And it -- out that there they're just as important and sometimes. Come. You know sometimes negative. Player of equal if not greater value a little bit deeper. So. You know we can identify guys that we like. And I think one things like there was referring -- is it's not really. A small group of players that you're saying OK these are going to be guys. Who now we're gonna take it was their seventh pick. We we can do. More of hey he's a big guys this is the group of four players in. -- -- more comfortable with this person we've seen him eight times you don't have many questions what not comfortable this guy. And we need to go out and see him. You know on the road receipt out that there likely politicos are urgently need some more specific questions that we man. At this point in past -- would you be removing people from the draft board at this point just saying no way he gets us. Yeah I think that's pretty fair and it that's that's one thing. Dead that probably picking a little bit deeper you can do but. Usually what would happen is I would see those guys early and and so you know kind of be prepared for any scenario. The situation on the players in May slide. So I think I think you you can't you don't arm of the purely. We can't obviously. Anything can happen injuries poor performance. But we would -- say okay this guys probably like Vietnam if we can double -- where we can match couples stand adults don't spend time time. On indicate that we picked point four and you know we -- -- pretty it's -- ago on the top ten. Is there anyone who you guys actually ended up getting who fell into that category of people who you would have removed from consideration early but it is still ended up. Who ends up kind of reentering the equation for you in the place where you picked. You know Jackie Bradley junior I think even though you guys kind of into -- was going to be off the board. He hadn't -- he wasn't so clearly off the board that you were removing him from Europe from -- -- priorities list right. Yet and I think I think that there is in other number of players that think in the past that we you know whether it was this. He -- not landed at covered up but it grew a little bit of an injury strike that early all we said as you know probably no chance to get to our pick as clearly. In our mind one of the best pitchers on the board. And and then -- guys this season progressed we said well it's actually -- to again make sure were comfortable with -- and we. And that our guys did pretty -- job scouting him -- and feeling comfortable with the body was -- So yeah it is probably a pretty good example Iran and and right. -- top five and end up with you guys are what 39 I think in 2010. Yep yep it's. Everywhere and that every year they're there are some that we don't get. Obviously that we that we spent a lot of time. And sometimes. It's you know to get tickets have -- that they except as we we we. Spent a lot of time in the league. Crisis averted in sometimes it's you know which spent a lot of time in and you know we've we've. You know missed and I it to players things. But one thing that is that is interesting to think about where and when that might be different about the number seven overall pick you know obviously a number of everyone remains in play even at this. At this point effort through cutting suit -- season but different as risk assessment when you're dealing with. But it is high because one of the things that strikes me as you guys have been. Pretty successful with guys like you know whether it's -- who ended up having. You know having a medical issue in his junior year ended up -- you guys were so comfortable taking him. At a number 39 overall a guy like Jackie Bradley who had injury issues you'd pop meant forty. Which is hard to those guys fall into the profile players who would still take. At the number seven pick guys who have. Medical questions surrounding them in their junior year or you know lord -- the risk assessment change with the pick this high. -- -- -- -- -- It it's it's harder to be that general. I need to take it on more specific case by case basis. You know word password -- Spann to our medical staff does a great job of organizing it review and our medical. And death and and being very. And it's been very. Open in communicating without assisted you know what -- there and concerns may be. -- -- no means that the medical. Processes is difficult to care is. You know there are a lot of hip a violation -- -- rules at the laws that we have to follow and and sometimes you know sometimes we don't get medical information until the very end. So we're left to -- guests -- two of the players in injured in the past in. And it's you know it's a little bit it's it's an area that says it's a little bit of agrarian that the we have an organization probably need to continue to do a better job and I think we as an industry need to do advantage out. Indicates you know it's the yes you're Arab brisket that the player but until you competitive depth player front and you lay your hands on them. Get may have Red Sox uniform you don't really know exactly. I saw. Now what the injury maybe sometimes. Some of the healthiest pitchers are the most injured and so little ones that look like they're the most danger they're probably the strongest so it's it's kind of a -- live looking at a but it's. I think that's the way this works. Is there anything that stood out thus far about done about this year's draft class from the start to think about you know think about the top of it especially the caliber of players to. Who might be on the board you know when you think about number seven and number 45. You know relative to other -- of the draft where the strength of the -- draft class early. Or has that already has that had a chance to formulate yet. Charges today. I mean I act I can say that there price going to be really good bigger ears in this draft and we just being defined. In national I don't know that there's necessarily strength. One and other whereas in like 2011. You know we refer back to 2011 a lot there's strength is college pitching. I can't -- -- and strength bird you know and and one specific area. Which makes it harder I assume length of the cross checkers Chavez is much more difficult when you're trying to you know when you're trying to weigh the relative merits of you know of a high school position player -- the college pitcher has been a little bit all over the map -- cast. Yeah it is and that's ten and that's why I ask Detroit go out spent a lot of time with these guys. It's. And you've been doing this side this you've already I think taken part you started the Red Sox front office in in kind of late in the draft cycle in 20020. I think you've had now ten. Draft that you -- fully a part of -- what are the interesting things to me to think about is the way in which we've seen shifting dynamics over time. With regards to their college for high school question. Back in 2003 -- first draft obviously you know a great deal was made of other Red Sox are going to go if you know all you know. High probability college guys and in fact you did at that point in part because. You needed that that kind of certainty to fill up. I'm a depleted upper levels of the farm system quickly. -- -- you know venue kind of went through a cycle starting in 2006. Going through 2009 where there was a lot of high school guys taken at the top of the draft two minutes seems to me that. And date with the exception of you know well there's been some diversity in these last three draft 2010 through 2012. There's been once again an emphasis on a lot of college -- some of whom are moving very quickly you know 2011 for instance. Bradley was taken he's in the big leagues less than two years later. -- you know obviously got off to a very good start last year. How you're thinking evolved about the relative nature of of risk categorization. For you know. Thinking broadly about college and high school in position player -- Yeah I don't I don't necessarily think that there has been -- nor do I think that there is a there is AM. To I don't mean it to be honest I don't think -- The discussion and the director Blake did you know let's let's go to college heavy here let's go -- idiot. I think we try to get the best player available on its and I know it's a very cliche ish bit. It's something we we always try to give -- and you look back to 2010. If the other is a little more strategy back then because we -- You know we were able to take player remains lit bit of it later and and you know high school player -- oil organic change your somebody like that. -- you know I still think we we did take -- good chunk high school players and hinting at eleven you know our. If -- Bradley -- assets -- talent to win. He now looking back to take you know there are red in means in guys like that that are high school players that obviously. More risk when you take high school player but I. I think we diversified portfolio pretty well as far as agent. Experience level and probability. And and I think that's -- -- we will continue to do. You know I think it just. You know it's it depends on what did what's on the draft board. And you know racquet take account splurge -- -- taking just guys are saying -- we took during high school players such take the best college player. It's the next best players expressed player on our -- inside school player when they go for high school players. And and sometimes. You know there is sometimes there's there's you know you have to take some risks and -- a lot of it -- depends on the Nate did you know that. And it did. And the state years here that your organization. -- and product they're probably different organizations that they treated differently because. You know there organization might need to have little lake where we were in 2003 may need. More are higher probability guys. And they have little less risk. Maybe a little but upside. First day mom but. You know have a have a better chance to go on -- fill some -- and -- Major League level you know a little bit quicker. Is there anything that in terms of results that you guys have had in the draft -- say you know what they did a commonality of you know -- -- where we were just off. Is there one category of player that you know that has fallen into that. That there were aware were awful lot. That's the nature of the draft though right I like to get to three big leaders out of a draft you've had a good draft. -- no doubt. I don't think there's one specific. Example in. Advocate I think he can just sit here and say. You know for every player that we dictate. That we swung and missed Don. Hopefully as a player. A couple of years later there that we -- it and in it in that same demographic. In assets it it's probably. Yeah you do it yet they're -- rates for high school right handed pitcher high school catcher probably a lot higher. That a college. Good college center fielder college shortstop or something along those lines states. You know I I I think group like recession mean for. That the reason there's there's still read like an interest interest rates for high school catchers so I can. You know there's so many different variables that go -- catching. That and you definitely can't get them at school level you know calling your own game and and active pitching really gets stuck staying in day out a poll of you know full season -- squad behind the plate every day. -- -- two days a week retreated and we couldn't and those are things that he try to David -- pro baseball quality and couldn't really. And you really get help. It is help people figure out does. What -- players -- -- -- the shortcomings may be in and you know -- You're not -- I don't get that by just gonna want high school game where he antenna is who gains they. Yeah I think I can't your question I don't think it there's this specific demographic stated. Miller who I guess we're not good and I think we've we've probably ever improve in every area and that's that's completely look at all the time. And and I think that you know our failures or what tries to get better and we look back -- trying to understand why we couldn't stop player. You know what were the reasons lie. He got throughout discounting process. Just be clear I'm not -- you guys specifically it's more of a kind of industry reflection on you know on who's on whose difficult to project in so. I don't get an idea because of -- sure you are all all that's it not not until we're off Sierra you know take it. Sudden you'd just have the just had your kind of mid points mid point amateur scouting department organizational meetings. What what are those like -- in terms of framing you know in framing this discussion of the data you've already taken in and what what happens now. -- Canada but I always say they're they're a board meeting their right in the middle what you're meeting in January would be warrior. Projecting we're gonna beyond and then and you know you're meeting in June -- here you know who you're on. There there -- a little bit in the middle in and they're just it's a full day where the meetings where we manage a lot of information we have. -- from ballots not just the scouting information that we we talked about scheduling and and you know moving forward you know where we are as far as. Cultural level players are coming how many times we've seen them how comfortable we -- with a player. -- -- better earlier any any specific. Questions you may have. Medical issues that that a player may have we we discuss them that they could be here. Factor. You know whether you know. Weather related issues that. You know especially with these kids in the northeast in the midwest where and we haven't seen gasket they've been snowed out there it's been -- -- into quarters ethicist and also that one and hit it takes. Actually it. So you know -- you do a lot of that it's it's a lot of kind of summoned up where we where we are for the previous you know 23 months and now -- cocaine movement forward what do we need what are we need to do. And let's not forget that dispersed or let's not forget about peppers during this guy has that you know maybe somebody we Gillick might be undervalued in. And let's get a couple more looks on them so. A little bit of that itself. Structurally -- -- about the amateur scouting department this year then came out than last year you guys have added. Certainly a second national cross checker right. Second national cross checker. They you know I think there's there's probably I get down there's been some shift again. Responsibilities. I guess to some degree. You know we had to. We had down. Yeah added added Eddie Bane onto you know as a special assistant to to band. Always good to have the guy who has Mike Trout -- Didn't exactly and it's a different perspective which is nice because. And I pick out that they -- mention mr. assortment idiot. Would take a relationship for. You know out however many years been on the roads CNN and everything bit. Found in our group has been together for a long time in and a lot to -- at times you think alike can and it which is a good thing a lot but having a different perspective sometimes brings. You know some different questions and and that's all we need you know we don't wanna get in the draft Germans every player we take every every single person has gone -- we don't have any questions or concerns. You know we wanna be have to sit there and say. Okay what do we see here why. What what are the issues here you know -- -- and and sometimes. In. The different way of looking yet it is is good in. And so it -- helped to sell a lot and you know for the most part that the rest of the staff has pretty much stayed the same I mean last year we had I think just down. You know given where we were there at the time a year we lost -- scalps. We ended up utilizing victory regional cross check system them back before so there's you know there's Serb. Not -- not a whole lot of new faces necessarily but -- just a little bit -- structure. Maneuvering them. Our is it is -- like Jason Varitek getting involved in the draft process. Out to some degree he's you know he's around and and he's had a chance to go out and see some players. And and I think. In he's obviously anytime you can add. Person and it's his background and expertise. It's you know it's certainly beneficial for everyone in the firms so they get some degree he's definitely. Some he definitely has -- handedness. Always there was always interesting to hear Terry Francona talked about -- talked about his first exposure to the amateur draft process. On the -- he kind of enjoyed sitting in the room and not really knowing what was going on I think that he was being a little bit off of facing it. You're not who you would say you know I don't know I had no idea what I was looking at -- in -- guy you know. Killing a high school team and say okay he's great may never know -- tell me why I was wrong for the rest of -- So it's that it is a fast needing areas of special position I think. Yet. It did it's been very you have to just get comfortable with because a lot of times you log gains did. Hit batter in meaning you get here -- hitter you might get. In a cage BP. Hit by pitch a walk. A fly out on the second pitch and one you know one one fireball into the player and center field some of the take -- breaker for since you know. And so. You know I -- you look at their scratching your head had to go back and sometimes CB DC in he suffered -- swings and shut up and -- mean. Pitch at the decent thing he liked and in the cajun. Somethings you just get comfortable. With stuff either refers to pick a number seven or number 45 what's the minimum number of look you guys would need to have. In order to feel comfortable effect. Act act that's probably do have a question to answer -- I don't think there's a minimum. There in the press at a minimum or maximum. You know we had so much history that some of these players to do that. There's certain. Especially some of these college players we've seen two high school there's a certain party devil wears a really good example -- the guy. We get editors confused junior in high school -- and -- customers team. You mean. So -- come every year for five straight years they even keel and we didn't we had to wait more than three looks on them but even if you only had three or four looks on them. He tried feel comfortable to keep seeing this guy every 1011 and you'd see them play you watched haven't. Every you know it says there was. It it's it's hard to say target really. He'd be as specific as that then now looks -- he -- meaning that and I guess you wanna you wanna be really comfortable so. You want to have almost every and the room all across checkers had seen him in -- against him multiple times so. Insofar as the focus more on the process then that at this point on whatever lies like five or ten years down the road this is probably. I'm a bad question but I excel -- those. What's the standard for success for a number seven overall draft pick. I don't know the last time the red tactic set and -- trot Nixon's so you know. Had a really good player. I don't know that's standard for success or not but. It's hard to say -- we wanna get it -- or negative impact for players it will. No meat -- fell apart sometimes and in and help and now. Not only on the field off the field speaking to organize they mean you know it's it's going to be gadget. Hopefully you know once in. -- -- to want to elect out for me. Placed a tick. And so we want to make we make sure we do such an impact with knowledge with epic political draft. I mean I do think find that draft interesting with so with truck because. I think that there are some people who look at is his -- say he was never an all star how can you say that that was a great draft pick but if you go back. The reality of a draft is that. You know is that he probably wasn't very far off from having the one of the one of the seven or ten best careers out of anyone in that 1993 draft. Yes and and Richard that the matter is. He he that it. And very instrumental piece in help and it went a lot of games. Obviously. For a long time and -- including can come and a the first World Series here's. You know trial and again it obviously many of us -- members of these -- her late game heroics. In in the playoffs. And then. And so upbeat out or whatever that's worth I don't know one off -- and not winning the World Series is it is. You know my. I guess more pactel to some people playing in an all star game but to me it's more factual for a guy can pitch and every game every day play hard. A lot and they really get Major League player and help to the World Series. Yet at the same time that you wanna find that guy who has who carries the most impact one of the fascinating realities of of the new collective bargaining agreement is it. You know have to fix pool of money and more last. And you have a limited number of of kind of quote unquote high ceiling guys who came -- to after the draft how do you wrestle with the idea of -- You know okay this is the best player on our board -- if we find a player who's pretty close that. It might cost considerably less. We can get let's say you know this is one that almost as input impact tall guy and another guy who's really high on our board. We couldn't afford if we if we took you know if you took a guy who was slightly ahead of that first kind of -- How wait till drafted -- taken and -- that means there's only different scenario that you can have gone through your head. Hard to wrestle it to get it just depends on who the players aren't I don't I I -- -- I mean there's there's that change in the dynamics of the draft. We're never gonna have a situation where every draft is going to be. You're not going to be able to predict what we do in the draft because I think we're gonna. Or probably you know -- -- the draft evolves so calm place. There I've never been successful prediction what you guys -- doing the draft I had -- directions -- -- -- nobody cares helped -- we can't ever read edit them. Is -- the case though that does it sign ability and I'd ability ends up taking up more time perhaps or more being more of an area of focus then. It -- even in the past or is it -- is that relatively unchanged. Now I think it's I think it's important. China made China set the players countryside abilities really important political players. That but to me it's more about. It's it's less about the money and more about -- desire. You know I don't wanna take kids they were gonna try to convince to play baseball when he let's go to college sure but they do something else. So you know that there's this side -- important that ticket that -- a player can play he can -- one of -- pro -- in April while we can figure -- Pardo later on. And hopefully. The end of the day. You know our area scouts have good relationships with the players and we get to the drafting. You know we can. You know we have of the true assessment of what they're subtle or and we can. Chinese -- -- about their quick -- have started their careers that they can be a little more advance in the start their first full pro season. I'll finish up with one last question which is less about kind of the you know -- specific or receive BA or any of that stuff and it's more just. It as a scouting director is someone who has never had access to pick for number nineteen overall in the draft. To have this opportunity to have this you know to have this as you point out you hope once in your career champ. To go out in consider. Who's going to be in the -- of the top seven picks in the country. Is there -- different you know is there are different and within the organization or personally for you. Of just kind of you know this is this is cool like everything is on the board. But now that we've just crossed off these -- -- meetings and you know and and it -- putting in a decision about who to bear down on who you get to see going forward I mean it's wide open. I don't Alley and I think I haven't gotten that point maybe it will because I'm still -- everybody -- have. You know I mean I haven't I I can't say I get -- that this may dorsett and a draft German league we start. On our list up and relate. While we have the number seven pick in the draft you know maybe that -- it -- bit. I'm so long out scouting the same they have in the past and maybe just. Seen a smaller group of players a little bit more but. It has been a really -- dawned on me -- that this is you know. I I looked at. The number nineteen pick two years ago and -- 2.4 -- last year is. Kids again impact Major League player and and and hopefully we did. Hopefully. We'll do the same this year. And and you never now obviously that the talent and the deputy cheers drafted just do it changes so. And sometimes the players. You know nineteen or twenty or thirty -- one draft could be five and another and and and that's just -- that nature of the beast. -- has posted you know it is need to cut back to against on your part for sure but I did the same time you know it makes sense of maintain enthusiasm for overdraft since. You might get a Dustin Pedroia in the second -- on during that you know have a 2005 draft where you get whatever three all stars out of it so yeah. Well -- -- thank -- -- -- or take them out for taking in plenty of time to to help me digest. Of stuff going on in the draft could look over the next couple months thank you very much. You heard from -- sought -- about the Red Sox preparations for the draft this year. But who might be in play for the team particularly with that top pick at the number seven spot in the first round. To answer that question we're joined by Keith law of ESPN. Here he is. He thinks so much for joining depreciated. Let's start with this you used to work in the blue jays front office as you pointed out on a couple of occasions in the past. And you have got to to have the experience with them picking very high over on the draft threat to number seven this year you guys picked numbers six and 2005. How has that process different. Then when you guys were peaking in say the middle of the first round. In that two years surrounding net. So that was my last two laughed when I was involved in the draft cycle and expect that quick like before the -- -- yes yes. The 05 draft was different because we started work on that election. Earlier than any any of the previous years that I can remember we had meetings at the end of the previous summer which September so. Because we knew we know exactly where we're gonna pick but we knew we be in the top ten shall we sat down to what we can look at least have attending watch list. -- -- you fall ball and -- you know again to head into February ourselves we may have been as we need to be made. But let's at least get that decisions that somewhat limited at this point. Knowing it would be college heavy that we -- introduced a couple of high school and that was the -- about the draft he's had he had to be him here right. But we were college heavy and it turned out of five draft was one of the best college stress. I think we've ever seen sort so. We have that set of -- that -- all the guy you know that Gordon said and on Zimmerman. -- Merrill we in the patent Tulowitzki it was not our next. Option if for whatever reason Romero they had been there we would take him to -- right and so what we started that whole process early. Skilled as those guys I think more heavily and that's really terms of getting cross checked and the directory and then. Special assignment guys going to see them. Early and then particular turning the GM at the time and he went to C Romero and Tulowitzki specifically. In April unfortunately such who would you -- their -- come back from restore hand injury don't think he got the ideal look at Tulowitzki but. We hit by that point. And that is April so we really merited him to a couple of players. We you up and would be gone we were. All but certain Gordon would be gone. If you go to there were other teams that were telling us that we're gonna take this guy if he's there right they'll. I'm sure that the Red Sox have probably talked to some of the club head of them just -- -- If they're just no chance correspondent gets -- -- -- no chance got a great yet that's okay that we can. If we can -- some resources. Away from those guys who have stopped counting. But you try to focus your resources on the three or four guys who might really be care. So that when you're making that decision whether extract favorite day or two before draft day. He's got -- many looks as possible and as much information as possible on the specific players are deciding. Now that draft as you said it was one of the great college draft classes of all time. How much easier would that one have been to scalp with one of the top overall pick. As opposed to this one word seems like the scatter plot is a little bit different. This for the past year it's -- really is that it's not a good draft it's not a deep draft. Picking seven might be okay picking twelve would be hard in the stressed because they think somewhere. That the click. Where you start to see the first big gap in talent. Somewhere in the at the back of the top ten. So it. That's one challenge for the Red Sox where they may be sitting there just are crossing their fingers hoping one particular guy gets to them. Well it's more like open one of the sixteen to have them pick somebody they just don't really what it is going to take some money we didn't expect. Ahead of us sit somebody any of these six guys get pushed down to I remember being in that situation a few times we're -- in the -- This directing a little bit thinner I think that probably comes into play. War for the Red Sox and into your question it is it harder to scale. The way that the Red Sox attempted to laughed. It's best player available but definitely a preference to take a college player with the first tech. The challenge for them as they are not seven college players were truly worthy. The seventh taken distract you cannot. Approach distracted at least considered too high school outfielders in Georgia or just on myself last week and court cleared top ten -- and does he rank them. Relative to each other they're out there and you have to consider those guys. Comparing them to a polished college senior white hander like market how the part you know I understand it's part I was involved in the discussions and I do is part of my job but -- -- but I I'd be the first to tell you comparing -- 1718 year old high school senior to a 22 year old college senior. When and a position player to a picture. That part one of the hardest things to do this job. Yeah I had kind of a wild cross checking responsibility. To take. You know different levels of competition in different areas of the country guys at different stages you know just like you know whether and that's sort of thing of their seasons and figuring out. How do you match them up. And Appel and and Jonathan great support of its -- for driving greater Oklahoma both right handed starters. But how the senior. I actually -- between when he young senior these great 21 of those guys and look at them you know what you -- you know projecting on the physically. -- -- -- Is that it is they already its Major League to not -- a potential top of the rotations. -- -- looking at the bodies insane. This is what we're getting whereas with Clinton Frazier not to -- icicle outfielders they mentioned in in the -- -- He just east of Atlanta. Bougainville I believe that that's Brendan -- is all of a -- Really very upset and -- -- people -- -- about fifteen minutes apart it's pretty funny unfortunately played each other once this whole spring I think that was probably -- well -- game and I asked. -- and Frazier homework which is not written a lot of heat my house that's been negated. To go walk like that. Concerns and was there -- -- -- relentless belief Frazier made himself some money that night something more than more than that is dead. But the differences especially with meadows. Who's the projection guy he's the aptly the football player and you're looking at him physically in trying to picture what this is gonna look like. 34 years down the road yet we do that all the time as part of the job cuts that would ideally it's part of this. Evaluation process but it is hard and it is at eight. Another area where you can make a mistake. You much less likely to make that mistake when you're looking between one or 22 year old college player who's already fully developed physically and very polished. So you mentioned a hell of help from from what I understand is is the one guy who's certainly not to be at number and immunize against. Barring some kind of weird injury I can't imagine him being on the board is that is that terror from your vantage point no chance that tells their exemption. Judy Appel and -- but the two guys -- it here if you're on you know the scouting director to ban he just sort of hand -- of the way -- it's one of those guys there we're just taking. But we're not expecting them to be there we should not be dedicating significant resources to scouting them. They should both be gone in fact they are right now one into on my board of health first. Great second and if you ask me to do a mock first round I don't like doing them before may -- -- -- we don't have a lot of intelligence yet but. If you said keep you gotta do one right now. That's what I do like April 1 -- Houston and I believe the cuts will take whichever of those two pitchers doesn't go one so the congressperson greatness back. Beyond that is there are there any guys who -- who you would take off the board for the Red Sox. But to actually think are least likely to be there after those standard -- great let's -- -- on -- 99%. Mom dawn. The next few would be Chris Bryant who it is actually in the nation in home runs rate now up. Third baseman for University of San Diego right with a guy at a high school was just kind of seeing them -- noble didn't have a great senior year but has. We really wait. Since getting to San Diego. I have heard him linked to a couple -- head of the Red Sox. I think there's that immediate 70% chance or so that he had gone before they pick. Enough for the championship and -- -- to do all the work that's sort of the army I don't want Saturday in the army I was there too bright but you -- Continue to do your work on him but I think there's a pretty good chance. He's gone at this point. You know Sean the mania but -- Anderson yes the example. Who was probably what you look the second prospects for me coming -- -- was number two unbelievable it ridiculous and when the best eight seasons of all time it was up to 96 commercial and is wiped out slider he left. Handed he's got size is dual track record he was completely he was truly out of nowhere on the case last year. He's the 1994 pretty consistently this spring the wider than average hitters don't see the fastball at all but it's not a traditional. Delivery which scares some scouts off with them for legitimate reason -- the lack of track record is also concerned who the heck what you're -- nobody knew that this guy what. That's definitely a worry I think it's more the -- with a position player then it with a pitcher but still you'd like to have a little more confidence in the -- history. And there's at least -- even money chance but he also -- the board he is still the best consulate in the draft. He could -- -- to Colorado for at Minnesota. And I think really every team after one into. That is going to ask him in the decision that their children each entry in to get past for me to say that there's a better than even chance for him to be there for the rats -- Charm in it is worth noting that when it comes to those performance and consistency he's precisely that guy who we talk about. When it's like bad weather guys who you might see uneven performance through the first couple months of a season because they're pitching in the midwest and it's really freaking cold. Yes you know it's funny you mention that you and I specifically targeted. Yet I have this march 15. Is pitching in the metrodome against Minnesota so with the matchup Tom Wendell lefty from Minnesota probably get that much ground yourself. And it was climate control. And sure enough on the -- there that night who Jason McCloud who Red Sox fans or remember now the cut he was there that I do it actually not out there we're not -- the -- got there. There -- a lot of national -- there. Who is probably not the same thing I thought. This is the one chance to see this guy when it's not going to be freezing all wearing me. And it took effect it would actually -- we're all complain about how hot it was metric. But it was one of those things is no excuses now if NATO patrol well tonight you can't blame the weapon that not -- Right and you don't have the risk of popping into a flying into Indiana State. And then all of a sudden finding your you know your travel wasted by a couple of rain -- Exactly and that's why it at that point in the year to get a cold weather kid and know you can check him off. You know you're gonna see him. That's worked quite a bit actually could otherwise you scout them and I do the same thing which and the -- out because it's just the higher probability of getting McCain jumped. It and it's interesting they get to compete all the time they have more playing time in -- more exposure and so. That the California Florida phenomenon in Major League Baseball and in professional baseball's interest in. -- part of that. So then behind that class of the top for the you've just identified all college guys he's just reeled off what is it then after that is sort of get into the the meadows and Frazier category. They're the next issue within the first two high school guys I will bat or -- pitchers it's -- terrible -- -- pitching direct. That's kind of OK for the Red Sox. They do not like to take a picture first it's easy -- yet true. Who is gone and now hurt right that'll -- almost not I'm not saying about one example. -- justified that -- yeah that. I think that's the only time they've done so right. I mean this Henry they these these dogs it was the first. Yeah Collins third actually are okay and that's what they like to and you get an expletive up is that look at that the power tightens. A little more certain in the bank and that opens them up to taking some lower probability that may be higher ceiling guys afterwards. And as it turned out -- the whole story critical right in our taxes and that's an injury issues social football act committed Texas and I -- so. No one is really short on ability to -- only high school pitcher I would even consider taking with a top -- ticket this year. And I don't expect the Red Sox to do that we would at least go against their. Have openly stated philosophy on how to approach the first peck. So. You've got and you've got the two outfielders in Georgia in -- The next few guys you want consider all our assertions -- three guys there are two more college pitchers -- Shipley at the lottery now what -- a couple weeks ago. He is a converted shortstop. Very athletic. He's up and he's been happening except I sought to 95 he gets pretty good plane on the fastball -- an out pitch changeup all ready. The current quality -- he does not it is not so he does not -- great feel for the pitch but I think it will improve in time he's at least got that rates in his wrists so to speak. To develop at least -- solid average curve on I think a chance for something better. There's also Chris Anderson at Jacksonville who obviously this weekend. Pitching against Kennesaw State who earlier this season was up and I -- seven and out pitch curve -- to. This stuff has not been consistent he's been kind of up again that we were shown but again. We actually happened. The you to -- for -- consistency of Shipley but I also should. Qualify that I have not seen Anderson yet myself so I make -- -- an amendment to be completely block away -- and what the ground on board. I'm getting back to Tim meadows and Frazier or they've been kind of pay as you point out they're good they're viewed as the top two prep talent in the country. What are their border there to skill sets how'd you -- you characterized you know where they are what they -- to be. Frazier is the slightly undersized about 510511. Future left field replace senator now has pretty dorm had a pretty good arm has had some -- issues. He could end up and -- his arm comes back otherwise is a left fielder hit the best that speed in the draft -- some of the best bat speed I'd ever seen I draft prospect. Javier Baez would be the other one I would come back to an -- any time you can say he's one of the two or three best I've ever seen. You've clearly got something special in bat speed is a very good thing to have. Not a polished there is it to me that not having bat speed is not the same as having been hit too cool break and. Yes exactly and except Frazier murder basketball in the murder and breaking ball in between those two pitches he swung him is that true. I school cobalt but about a foot and he he's got some power I don't think he's going to develop more power. It is not an athlete so you're really getting very heavily on the back if you -- -- with bat speed and got present power. He's the top ten pick in you know I'm sort of picking apart here he's still a top ten pick. -- on the other hand for me. You've got the feeling you can absolutely dream about it about him he's tall he's more physical the better runner. He's going to have more power at the end of the data Frazier guys. Vietnam the same bat speed he would play with the same energy to. Preacher played a little bit like to care gunfire and -- not discount to like that and you know that when I'm going to ballpark I wanna see that too. Meadows played the vote for the lower gear there too. And he's coming off. That was coming up football every time -- great season so. You always wonder about what what kind of shape this year and in terms of just fatigued -- all right he didn't have the same kind of energy. Better Frazier. I used to always default to -- media actually -- it is lower probability the athletes to the -- to turn out to be the start to collections in the opted for the world. Better it is a Mac. Where is that Frasier if you think it left fielder he might be right if you think you're left fielder he'd better hit. You'd think I'd let you left fielder in the first round you were essentially pushing all your trip to the center of the table and saying. I believe this player is going to hit. And it could it brings it back speeded I don't think -- -- -- -- that I would be able to do that with the seventh tactical all of him like that on the tool. Who else would Douglas would you put in in kind of category the next you know for a handful of guys who might remain in play for the Red Sox. -- -- at that number seven overall pick. They were there was one other -- I didn't mention before I simply got the ball. I mentioned -- pitchers there's a lot of -- ran out third base in North Carolina there's a lot of them I know yes I'm gonna go see him next week. The numbers are ridiculous. He's hitting for average he's showing some power. He's got I think 31 walks in he punched out outlook calling out that have a lot of problems but that's usually a pretty good sign that's kind of what she's -- -- As college player -- university Tennessee. They've obviously haven't worked out OK yeah it more ram issue every single person is gone he comes back and says he's going to. -- no doubt that that can hit it might be the best pure hitter in the class. He'd probably not a third base he's got below average range is hands are on his actions are good. He's not quit at all and is still below average range at third base. It's a pretty good chance you -- and -- another position and you know just point around the majors how many third -- BC. The struggle with -- some of the maybe don't have the greatest actions that they can at least make up for recovering some ground right there just a lot of really good defense at third baseman on the major strike. If that's the tendency. That you got to look at -- and say well what are things that they even a 20% intensity of the the first state how does the -- -- over the -- That's a little bit riskier for me keep going in the top. Ten to twelve -- I'm very certain that there's even a chance he's gone before the Red Sox -- I know that the Red Sox are certainly one of the team's most interest in him. And I I think it Bryant is off the board. Before they pick that means it's almost certain that Milan would be on the board and one of those two college bats and those -- the two best. In the draft they just ignoring ought to look at Stanford has been heard from most of the season. Yeah I think that he's become such a risk that he wouldn't really be in play for the Red Sox -- -- Girl I think he's the top ten talent who probably -- -- going in the teams because of the injury issue you're looking at Bryant in Milan. I put it this way I put a lot of money on one of those two guys being their for their pick. But probably not well. Moran well when you referred to him do you think it is that your your question is whether or not hell have enough -- to be a first baseman in the big leagues. Exactly the standard at that position is so high so much higher he probably be very good defensive first station opener because of -- lesson issue. Much more -- and can't find in fact have a guy coming at. If you magnitude eight scouting scale at sixteenth and -- bowling team that's not really -- third baseman typically sell. Can you get this -- -- Even you know between four and five but you would call the 45 saying so it just enough to get him to play that position. I wanna see in myself next week to kind of add to my evaluation of what's coming back to me so far. Very captain from national side is you're probably looking forward center over there and that. Are you willing to live with that when you move over first. The one interesting part of the components to me is that this is one of the rare draft the red. Obviously you always take the best guy on the board great but. In the case of the Red Sox if you have a guy who's very advanced as a player. You know a guy like like a Moran who's perhaps not that far away from majors in the projection might be is -- first baseman. That's kind of the one area of glaring deficiency in their farm system to me the first that clear first baseman right now they have you know they have thought Travis shot. As as their their guy who's most likely to be a big league third of first baseman in their system. And you know whether or not he can he'll still have enough -- to be an everyday for space Marines open question. When you picked that high does you know doesn't need ever entry into -- do you feel. Would it seem like the Red Sox be more comfortable saying maybe he's the first baseman and that be okay. You know it's great questions is there ever a situation where I'd be comfortable drafting with that some consideration you'd. I probably wouldn't. Myself. I just think -- the best player available until where you pick. A terrifically team has picked the best player available there's far too much of the likelihood of regret it who you passed down. If you don't take the best player which -- and you're gonna find the best player available correctly but he's right but you got to operate -- you're doing. If you're not a better assume that -- let's -- to -- and egg eating it is exactly. I would really hesitate to reach for the first baseman -- if you're going to reach -- -- -- you build shortstop in the system. You're a lot less likely to reach for shortstop -- it would -- reaching for shortstop because they're valuable commodity. If you get exactly -- maybe just not quite inclusion don't want. There's some -- -- can reach for first -- I'm not many department just in general of her first -- not quite what you thought you want. Even organizational. So it needs. Calatrava shot in the -- to survive. You know reaching for first statement because you don't have. Wouldn't make sense taking the first baseman because you think that they can change at 35 bombs for. And oh by the way we -- the first baseman. That second statement sounds a lot better rate. I like shot two for its worth. Good approach. I can think he's going to be a pretty good player he -- not restore. You look at first Beijing to look at numbers can you want me he's still quite a range of last year they approach -- fine he's got power. Yeah I did a huge bomb in now they tell league Carolina league all star game last year. That help you not one of those heavily scouted teams to increase value matters for pro prospects due to different market for them. But those All Star Games are pretty heavily. Jobs -- there that was -- I was talking to a scout who. Child was put on his radar by virtue of that and is there is that that again from the standpoint of where the Red Sox are how many people do you think would be in consideration for the number of an overall -- at this point. My guess is they probably did what we didn't cross started with about ten games. You can cross to retrieve -- -- right away they're probably looking at about five maybe six guys most. At this point and and again trying continually trying to narrow and -- what you're really doing it is just creating tears with him. Tears Hubert he decided to write these in the. Five or six guys left. -- to get the one guy we desperately want the most. Here's the next two or three we might have to decide among because the guy we really want can be gone in here. Well it's everything else goes -- is the guy we end up taking because you know it is in draft system to. Money is a factor even for a team that you know the Red Sox never mattered to decide every sure. Now you've got to think about can manipulate the money may be do we beat someone the first pick. Turn around with the second pick ticket I conflict because of financial considerations. There are few high school players this year -- Jones and Virginia is one of them. He -- first round money we're gonna go to the University of Virginia. I think he's a first round -- just in terms of talent but my slide out of the first round in which case. Whatever he'd taken it to be prepared to pay all first plot. To bite him essentially by him out of that commitment to the University of Virginia so key target Jones if you like him. And say what we need to save it 300000 dollars our first -- we have that might take in the the second pick. That's going to be consideration I think any team in the first round should at least have one guy. At their particular decisions that we care but if we just don't like the options will pick this guy -- him under slot and try to make up Fordham expects. Right ended it's a fascinating thing because as it has you know with with regard to all prospect development no matter how good the prospect look. It's still a numbers game you're always here almost always in better position to have volume. As opposed to say as opposed to hang your -- on the one guy because the one guy could have injuries sort of one guy could have. Any number of things that service derailment and unexpected case of the yet anything can happen. Last year I hit the Astros had the -- draft now you know they picked first overall -- that the pastor. But they didn't actually pick the guy who was first on Mike -- that the guy who was second home port. What they thought was great about their draft life that have been I -- second on my board and paid him twenty million dollars less than their assigned. Slot figure which meant they had three million dollars. In their draft bonus pool to find other -- and to plant McCullough junior with the next pick. Who would probably a first round town anyway it took real lead in the fourth -- it was the fifth round actually. He may have been a first rounder -- could separate that blood clot in his neck means that -- is seen in two months early. He just couldn't be used outlook going to be drafted that I could team could get a look at it. They managed to move the money around and acquire. 831. Round -- it up with -- Four players in the top 51 of my own draft board. Which one it published obvious comeback out right before the draft that's a good haul and it's a good use of the money it understanding the system. Recognizing advantage you have picking first overall not just entered the game the best player but in terms -- getting the most money to play with and to potentially move that around to acquire again multiple first round talent for farm system back. Heading into last season was looking pretty weak. Your mind what is the standard of success entering into the trap for number seven overall pick. You know what what would qualify as a good outcome. A solid outcome -- not necessarily obviously. You know being the high end is you know you have a guy who's an all star Cy Young award winner is that the is that kind of the you know looking down the line five or ten years what would what would it could take it the seventh at the seven number seven overall look like. Look if you've -- solid regular an everyday player. Four. And number three or better restore but that take you actually done really well and I understand that fans would would say it will look kind of disappointing. And I imagine scouting director saying well you know I thought we were getting more. You're the -- you take its seventh you're out you know and -- in all those guys are gonna walk out of the draft Germans say. Internally then we got store we think we got us to sites like everyone. Yeah you know they -- that the thing while we directed forty Geithner publicly. You know realistically historically. That's not to be the case. In there have been plenty of guys taken in the top ten who didn't even become big -- right diplomat with the third pick in the 2005 draft were talking about earlier. You know what I don't art draft board but obviously he was high on somebody's. And he's never become a big league regular and we think he -- a backup essentially foreign players right -- that. Eight possible outcome even if you take a college player with a top ten -- to keep it solid average. Everyday player I played every day for -- -- years you've actually done well. You're hoping for better I would be hoping for better completely understands. Fans saying we are hoping for better. But in reality if that which you end up. Yeah I was it's interesting in the context of this pick because. As army -- pointed out the last time there it's a -- numbers have an overall they got Trot Nixon out of it which some people like -- that's not Grady was never an all star but in fact. He was a very very productive regular equivalent number of years yeah whenever it between injuries. Had very good. Well Keith thanks very much for giving a little bit of insight and zoom into where things stand as the draft class to take shape. Although I met -- it's going to can -- a couple of times between now and -- now and early June so we'll probably have to get you back on in order to figure out. What the -- the top ten looks like a little bit closer to the action while forward. Thanks to both ESPN's Keith law in Red Sox amateur scouting director -- audit for joining this week's show. If -- any thoughts about the show or ideas for future shows let me know on Twitter at -- beer. Or shoot me an email ads down on the farm at WEEI. Dot com. Thank all of you for listening into producer had a day look toward being back here next week.
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