Nov 15, 2012|
Keith Law joins the Hot Stove guys and talks (rants) about what an archaic group the BBWAA is, how the Triple Crown is overrated and how ridiculous MVP voting can be.
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
But still show -- -- 37 WE I -- -- that he thought a minute talk about the MVP which went to Miguel Cabrera comfortably. In his look at the BB WA a has. The ballots which -- used to not do -- you run their last night he voted for the site on congratulations thanks but I -- honest I would I look at these guys you're the guys that you. You hang out what you mean there are so some of these guys is so stupid some believe this regular pat on the desk reference market solace in the Chicago Tribune who. I imagine is not impaired mentally. Voted don't Derek Jeter who why you know brings a great player. Third the American League MVP well well upon is that it plays well that's that's that's the second. -- ones having we all agreed that first one was shell shell walker the shocker. Of Cleveland in the plain dealer group complained yeah he's that he voted Beltre certificate be Akron beacon to UK job voted I'll hold this. He's old unit continues yes them as hard as Wagner Beltre and you do that you know he's like -- voted Beltre second over Trout. So now you -- not happy I mean it's not a matter of not happy distinctive dot I just wanna get this off my chest has been on my chest. I think the Triple Crown this kind of stupid and with that on the Olympic may agree with you people obviously and keep its Turkmen and Al Xperia rob Bradford -- you triple. What was your you know I thought -- -- it was gonna be close I did not I mean I figured I still thought there was that sort of older wing would vote for Cabrera just by default but. Where you -- -- 22 cents -- Now I have no expectations for the baseball writers' association. It's an insular group the older group. In in this -- group that has. Wanted for years to try to limit. Who get into that protect the right they wanna let me brought higher and a couple years ago they -- and perhaps a hard time they gave. They denied SB nation needed you guys a hard time. Back guy getting a bill Madden who this organization put in the hall of fame with -- award. Yet to get his head around the on the radio the radio station website -- -- in a radio station and that's how up to speed. -- group that you consider this what this really wise was. Well one of the final -- But just to hold dying philosophy you've got a situation -- -- audiences smarter than so many of the people that they're reading and if you're gonna look at that. Now in in years to compensate. -- with -- with these people that they do not see that -- -- the more valuable player but these people these voters are saying about how we are the guardians of information. You must continue to look at the game that we want to look at it you know the industry that we cover. Look at us and big twelve morons because they all know by trial was more able player. But again they're trying to beat you people trying to protect their job to protect the years that it does guardians of information even though they could hope that this is passing them by. Ortiz isn't as simple as if Mike Trout and hit for points higher than Miguel Cabrera he'd be the MVP. I get -- right now at war all right -- it's that simple as I accept. Yeah I think that David Ortiz should I should demand a recount of the 2005 MVP voting to -- lost Iraq at this point. Yep -- and -- beat the Triple Crown but playoff narrative that the other thing. If the White Sox don't fold where the tigers angels were simply different division they switched division. At the intellectual one more day. And they put a much tougher schedule. But the tigers made the play out Cabrera carried it into the playoffs and we didn't come Paul pocket watch a baseball game every now and then. Follow it -- them this is not an individual sport this is the India where one player can really take a peep from eighteen wins one year at forty for the next. Well that and the players have that kind of impact in baseball and Cabrera carry the -- just sort of ignored that. Austin Jackson Prince Fielder Justin Verlander Max Scherzer or have pretty good season. Which is worse he's -- -- obviously feel very strongly about the Cabrera thing but putting Beltre and -- -- Which is which is the worst transgression in your mind. If you just if I said one on one. Putting Trout anywhere but first went bad putting him third is really indefensible. -- was the border in Detroit who I think had left and no law. Is ballot entirely. Somebody had a body is tenth in the future. I don't was summit Jeter third I mean it is look at it and it just seems to be. Just a rash of mistakes but I mean -- You know what what criteria are you using this is I mean I've voted note in the fourth time -- voted on an award it's always been an alchemy. Ever taken very seriously I think there's an obligation to take this seriously to try to do that kind of objectively and to me that means. It spending some time going through the best statistics that we got available from measuring performance and I -- felt like that went what you what you whenever. Do you think -- about it was the tenth most valuable player. In the American League this year what are you picking names out of -- hack. There's no rational thought process behind this is like somebody realized that the ballot was -- five minutes just fired off an email with ten named Pete he picked Iran. Who -- whom who put the bomb Pakistan a lot John -- I don't know and -- all I know some of these writers I don't look for a trucker I know the name I know he's another he's a seasonal -- Yeah therapy what they were younger right in the bill -- Minnesota is reflector. Yeah Africa malaria -- how well policies you know orient they opened Cabrera both both Boston voters vote -- good for us -- not a lot of colleges they -- well educated and. It's. Tito an operator Matt Bryant and -- You'd be surprised the idea that you -- high school curriculum as changing by the minute -- in terms so a lot of people obviously reduce it to this idea that Cabrera has impact in the batter's box was so great that that's why he was the guy ahead of Trout. Who do you think with a better hitter just you know whose office who may be greater offensive impact incentive batter's box out. I thought trap and certainly privately before these hearing that three weeks because Beatles were busy trying to pretend that time while with the biggest waste of money in the American League this year. Trial with a much more dangerous hitter overhaul. If you factoring in what he did once he got on base and got on base so that actually it varies slightly higher clip -- -- it. This year Cabrera had an edge in power. Some of which is explained by he has more power -- which is explained by. Played better hitters park and played much more competition this year but still you can -- in the power department. But -- got on base just as well Cabrera did and did substantially more damage. What he was actually on base and if they were both been neutral environments in terms of ballpark in competition. Iraq and to that point where it looked extremely similar even -- Cabrera had -- the slightest of edges there. Trial which is an overwhelming once you start looking at defense is based. It is kind of amazing to my mind when you in just looking at the base running thing throughout very like simple lens. Why is it that Miguel Cabrera is on base more than Mike Trout by a number of times. It yet scored twenty fewer runs despite the fact that he had a Prince Fielder hitting behind him. If indeed he brought like the statue of liberty you good -- getting Cabrera home from first takes about forcing them. You know like David sarcastically yet. This thing does actually mattered -- the value delivered Trout delivered since -- been more value on the basis want to -- base stealing. Stole 49 had a 54 which is. A couple well over the threshold somewhere between 775%. You get over that mark you're helping the team. But also just dropped ability to he spoke first and third to score from second on a base hit to score from second on I -- you know. He would not quite Billy Hamilton territory here but you know potentially score the second on that sac fly to score from first on. I doubled it wouldn't score the majority of hitters where is. Cabrera on the other hand the station to station and over the course of the season. It's a handful of runs in either direction but the difference between these 21 of the fastest guys who lead and one of the slowest. Which really substantial such as the the base running numbers show that in the defensive numbers as well. In talking to voters are 'cause tired of people based do you think their defense is valued enough when voting for the sword. Now clearly. Voters missed it twice because they bit the value of position. Center -- the proper position played third base stopped by a huge amount but it's a little bit tougher. And they don't value defense properly that's not a surprise rate this for a long time this was simply the most RPI. What it by. If you if you just take the time the read the description it is not set in stone but beat the the has read the description of the award but there is defense there is games played which you know obviously works little bit of against be gentle with him that -- Yes that's true that the army we worry before I think it was based ignited hasn't changed since 1932. So you have to -- that -- saying -- only white rights and that I don't know. Yeah I Josh gives him as -- 93 and keep Fabius the end joining us here on a hot stove show Q1 of the arguments against trial by the people doing it is. A game on September 18 means more than a game on -- 8. Right which is wrong. Like it and I mean I'm not -- -- if you look at the standings there's no double counting -- game since September. And actually I don't know I don't really like going down this particular rabbit hole anyway by. Miguel Cabrera last twelve games of the season came against the twins in the -- An appointment a White Sox were implode. So you could argue that became he played at a preliminary and. Became increasingly irrelevant where the angels I don't think we're eliminated all the friction days left in this season maybe bring. To every game -- played September. Why it's extremely important and by the way -- played it absolutely fine in August and September hit 387 on base over the last two months. Which I don't believe -- arbitrary and points thank you gotta look at the entire season and not highlight certain monitors certain weeks we have certain days. But there has been the argument that what Trout faded down the stretch -- we didn't he actually played great continue to steal bases played great defense. -- get on base to the three things he does extremely well both what you did see here with a fairly concerted campaign by these old guard media members. -- -- Created narrative around Cabrera that also. Included degrading Trout performance. Even if the fact did not support it claiming that Trout wasn't good at the end of the season claiming that. The angels weren't as good as the tigers all of these things were false but became part of the Cabrera -- Part of the reason keep by acting to Triple Crown is stupid is because it essentially. Identifies three stats that all measure the same thing you know. Home runs during good hitter average you're a good hitter RBIs are good hitter congratulations on identifying three variations on a theme. Yeah a lot of home runs and you know what you're playing on the Astros to meet the actors -- forty home run hitter than all the lineup he would out of probably not likely to -- RBIs in -- be activated to get guys on base but in general if forty home runs and have a 110 restore the guy and maybe more. Just depending on the base who are based in front you're sort of double counting. But they point out that I wrote about the variant of the season. What the Triple Crown include the batting average home runs RBIs -- it doesn't include. Our walks. Get Batman -- flies all actual events that have value particularly walks. Stolen bases in everything that goes along with base running double and triple don't access the counted exactly the same Singleton and the Triple Crown. Defense position ballpark competition none of those things come into Triple Crown. Where the people that make people think to me on Twitter Triple Crown covers the three most important -- statistics you must have the worst understanding of baseball. If you think that those three statistics. Are the most important we'll -- you anything close to a complete picture of the sport. Granting that. If people identified those three you know people there are people who obviously identified those three is defining stats in the fact that Cabrera what that led all children sure that the the fact that Cabrera who you know won the Triple Crown was identified as this historically. Significant event that had occurred in generations. What's the case for who is they're not a case against you know I'm curious for your perspective. Was this the kind of transcendence. You know a -- all season by. By Trout did it doesn't deserve. You know some kind of historic consideration for a cabinet. It's one of it it would be arguably the greatest rookie season in history. The first rookie to go. Well what was it 3030 he reached third he'd get a chance to -- third set right and that was caught stealing a couple of times that think -- at least once or twice that. Finals series went it was clear people were out of it it's just well. Track and run but that he wants at this point. No matter how you slice it would -- go by each goal by rookie status it was. One of the greatest seasons in baseball history is wide. I believe the highest wins above replacement -- -- -- -- since Barry Bonds who carry some. -- along with his perform. So -- bond out of the equation you're going back even further define -- season with as much impact that we can pack in all areas just as much total impact. As -- was able have. This year and projected to be ignored by the voters is that it's willful ignorance we are not going to look at defense we're not gonna look at page running. We're gonna stick our head in the sand and just look at. What was on the back of old time baseball. Do you Gary we're all surprised him there and it turned out this way but before a half hour ago for refinements ago. What was your prediction in terms of how this is gonna shake out how many first place votes trial where he gotten certainly not six -- I thought Cabrera who would win and it wouldn't be back. It particularly if it's the other way that the voting the pointer signed its fourteen for first place vote nine for a second and then you can just go down one. As you go down the line so even if Trout with second. -- Every other ballot Hillary wasn't first it would still in terms of point it was a little like a landslide Cabrera got the majority of first place which is what I expected. PDF and remember this morning and they said. ET to twenty for Cabrera instead of 22. These awards and we seem more rational to result from the -- -- the people finally walking away at least a little bit from pitcher wins. But the MVP award looks like it's going to be the last one to fall and Natalie could fall before the -- start to get mark. People ask questions from me here I guess I'm not really short taking everything account -- if you had had a vote for -- on BP would have been for Trout or -- Cabrera. Proud person -- that would have brought it now back in real value added over Cabrera and over progress in fairness -- -- Cabrera I mean -- tremendous season. Get a try to see if he thinks that there are basically the -- the things sort of hoped Cabrera supporters want to talk about -- he was fine at third base only what he's the -- saw give the ball right at them. And it basically found that glove that he could throw he's he's got a good arm but -- brutal -- he was little if Parcells that he wouldn't it wasn't a good third baseman the first time. And now he's heavier. But he was the last time he tried to pay to play the position where it canal. Mean I thought the comment Duncan out too well you know he's lazy he doesn't try which is. Unfortunately something to see a -- lot of Latino players and I. Yeah maybe was why you never hear -- ever ever get -- that here. You know he's if he was white he'd be scrapped and he'd he'd be a -- -- I don't think -- you know it. The least bit lazy he's a good defensive second baseman it's to his great credit he wasn't one when it first came up. And he had a great offenses he's deeply slightly tougher position positioning Cabrera did anything much tougher competition over the course this season. You could argue that can now get help from the ballpark and and if somebody -- -- February 2 over canal. I'm fine without those two that were pretty close and leans toward canal -- it would Trout in the gigantic gap. Before you got anybody. He won one time a man named Sam Cooke's -- change gonna come hang in there -- I swear it's it's going to happen it's. Well you know what Cabrera when he could provide -- I get keeper that's true that's true if that's how works or page views. Thanks keep up my -- thanks thanks -- by SP and joins us.