WEEI>On Demand>>Kerry Byrne, Cold Hard Football Facts, talks defensive passer rating.

Kerry Byrne, Cold Hard Football Facts, talks defensive passer rating.

Aug 19, 2011|

Kerry Byrne joins Dino and Kirk Minihane to discuss the Pats preseason victory over the Bucs from a statistical point of view.

Transcript - will not be 100% accurate

I joined the -- AT&T hotline by the it's possible the nation's fastest mobile broadband. AT&T rethink possible our friend from cold hard football facts Cary -- good morning Kerry how aria. Sorry guys you're trying not to -- -- palms too much and so we go to you for you know statistical analysis and an overview of what you saw last night reality. -- a little dose of reality or is that not available this morning after what we and you saw the patriots do last. It was really impressive it was it was super impressive but I -- you know that the quote you're talking about and Greg Dowd column -- -- -- -- -- about. One of the greatest beat down that preceded it I don't know that through that seemed a little. -- over the top but it would bet that it it was really impressive in the -- is. And we start when Josh Freeman -- again by the very very good quarterback this guy is really an underrated quarterback he's a rising star in the NFL he's not a bad quarterback. And He was He played terribly couldn't get anything done and that is. The Cingular He that this team -- the department hopping on this the year and I think -- and I talked by a few years ago I was. Writing to WTI dot com on on their pass defense -- the one thing guys it's Angela thing that's kept it in for when He was with three more capable. And if they'd -- -- that. Just a little bit that this is that this could easily. Seem to be to the team to be in the NFL you. The style of defense that we saw last night -- continues will we then have to remove the phrase bend not break defense from the patriots vernacular. Yeah I mean -- spend that kind of in the dial in arguing you -- the wanna be. A bend but don't break defense you know in most instances you wanna hit it brought it up. You know you got it got about giving up points you know what you're you're if you're ranking -- in scoring defense and I think -- ranking in yards allowed that's a good thing about how we measure. A -- our football that we've -- bend but don't break defense is the product pages they did they give too much of both I mean I know they had a pretty good. I defense at the end of the day in terms in terms of points allowed the -- you know they just. Gave up a lot of yards in and they're just too many points in the -- and the problem is an alternate down guys that passing game that has it been since then. The -- until fifteen. Throughout almost the entire Belichick era and -- did go to way to market collapsed it guys. But I know I I I know we've got but the larger on what defensive after -- Just get a -- for people who haven't heard you -- with us before this is like your favorite thing in the world and it makes a lot of sense and their statistics to -- to back it up most. Obviously. A Green Bay and Pittsburgh last year the two Super Bowl teams where one and two and defense -- passer rating. Explain it to us like we're a five year old here what it means -- why it's so important -- You know basically -- the market data I know we can -- stacked up those approved winners on the field defense -- -- -- All we do it to the formula you'll vital quarterback. And apply to a team -- He sent out it was important that. Perform against you over the course of the year in the region. I love this data in any football being -- not -- it depends what happened they don't know what's going on on the field of about helping you need to know defensive -- I understand when it was well. Every great team throughout history had a great defense integrated into a pick it up a lot of yards and I really want a perfect example with the 2001 patriots 23. Asking are allowed. People -- her current one what's gonna run crazy on -- -- crazy on on them. But that would between defensive passer rating if you look at the -- numbers you know that 2000 -- had a fighting chance against the British or interpret it did. Opt in it like it hit it to support built quarterback supplied the -- is confident great champion that'll always good this indicator for example. The patriots last year in 81 point two defensive -- and only one champion in history go all the back in 1940 what we're podcasting and in the 2010 pages I in the market with a -- they did not applicable caliber. Defense you know one about a way to what you were easily the worst in history to win a championship the 2007 giants. You know carry don't you in your right with that passer rating but. In the pages heading into the post season the last 678 games of the season last year I suspect their defense a passer it was a pretty good. Got it got it ethnic I don't get much better over the second half of the year for but the problem is. You know if you look at the breakdown and obviously that depends a passer rating ended up being pretty decent middle of the road still not championship belt right exactly middle of the road. The problem is that they would they would getting a lot of interceptions but it really goes -- deceptions. And -- deception thirteen part of aspirin but both they'll both offensively defensively. Otherwise that that can't even with the they have 64% completions against them -- -- -- -- and 25 touchdown after the allowed only. -- what in the world and that. That -- north that would really up or Cassie and said that what fortunate you know dep -- -- a real good year. What the F seven rated deception to the -- they had a lot of the deception. Our Internet you know looked up all part of it but I think other militant deception that was a real bad. It was an opportunity opportunistic defense and opportunistic team overall we don't know that. But otherwise they've they've really we saw earlier got in trouble. Talking about political and also the work third down defense we talk but the couple weeks ago -- or third party and for the last you know decade. So you know there was a lot of people will tell the difference -- quarterback with one of the greatest seasons small time. But it's not done enough to go to all the comedy sensitive can't make big and again and and the Tibetan it will guys going after the beginning. Up the Bill Belichick -- I know we -- -- offensive genius and he's obviously one of the great if not the greatest coach Ford. But the defense is not really you know how held up behind the bargain except for the 2003 team. Which I wanna bet that even -- you know past and when He is. It seemed that real ordinary -- ordinary at -- and it defense and that's why they don't have to a three more comparable. We're talking with Kerry -- from cold hard football facts and just to put this in some sort of statistical or numerical context what would be like the top rating. Could I assume that the below that number is the better off you're doing and that defensive passer rating like around seventy is that as good as it gets. Now and all you want I mean -- look at the let's put that for the 2000 pre patriot had to -- -- the. Wow there are some Green Bay last year we won the Super Bowl was number one was 67 it correctly. Absolutely not you know without the rate of slowly creeped up over the years and they get a little higher but. You know if you're in the sixty have a good chance you're gonna you're gonna be at the global content at a -- it by the way have been in the sixties. They -- in at 68 in 2001 -- receivable 56 to 2003 that one's capable. 75 which is pretty decent in 2004 that one of the global but the trade -- and said. Got erected move in lockstep with the defense of isolating it really does such a critical indicating they thought article five in 88 defense apparently. The one that got away guys with that 2016. They benefit of that happening they would welcome war there were really the team and what happens they imploded in the second half against the call his title game. That's really the one that got away in medical 2007. The greatest upset in in football history much bigger than major political football rate. -- the giants beating beating you know that got an update -- about the -- is not happy typical -- with them say they've got there. By virtue of their great authenticate He would happen when your team. Apple weakness and and that and the -- that critical week the week the -- connection means. That in the fourth quarter of simple 42 when they gave up touchdown passes not one but two -- -- order that you that. And that that that we quick impact on demand and you could see it coming guys if you look at the right now. Not the last night's one game example or sample tells you very much the Tampa Bay's combined passer rating last night against the patriots 52 point three so that's a pretty good number what our eyes were watching is what our brain was telling us any sense -- your estimation. What has more influence on a good defensive passer rating the pass rush up front of the defense I know the answers both its accommodation. But what has more influence on a successful defense of passer rating the pass -- the -- defensive backs. Yeah I did I looked at -- a concrete -- original football with so many moving parts and penalty to isolate individual performance right -- who has the most impact. We don't you bet that the that it doesn't matter. What that fit. I mean it is Iraq after that instantly you could put it you know you could put -- bring about Barack they would you know whoever. And if -- -- like Africa doesn't matter you know this is in the secondary and I respect. Instinctively. You know that half or make all the difference in the world but the good to integrate. Great pass -- in -- especially not. It's not so profound you know and it really the combination of doing a lot of things well in all aspects of the game. And out so that you know at what we really looked at by the way you know we talked about pieces of defensive passer rating last night. I think she was when -- Freeman or as we just look at the starting you know the static scene right. We have another step operating different to -- Or that. Isolating differential in the status -- yeah Brady 111 passer rating which it probably. An average game I am right I mean based -- -- bright and Freeman you know the 78. I would like. -- at the -- at what best keep operating at all He read that the rise in that's. What's encouraging is that a guy that really good about it but are pretty -- got a lot of production with few mistake if you look at -- nobody really putting up. Vietnam is -- greatest -- I that it doesn't want to make that guy that I would bet He doesn't usually looked. We're pretty sure that bill Brady bill Brady Bill Belichick doesn't put a lot of stock on -- necessarily the pressures and -- and those kinds of things is out of ballot approaching your mind -- Well I think the frustrating thing for patriots fan right that we it has been kind of a read and react defense right and I heard yet talked earlier about. Oh they're dictating you know that that the plight of the game and I think. We've watched him kind of -- read and react and minimize mistakes and got a lot of look at how they get -- -- -- football in the purely. As they and that unnecessarily numbers to support this but that'll open up frustrated right you want you wanna see -- killer out there with the quarterbacks it softened up. Right you also policy and get off the field on third down which they couldn't do -- Exactly and that's really you know where you know -- part of a much yet they're going to be. I quit and I'm not I -- -- and some people and on the help Bill Belichick had a culture I think the guy doesn't bulge but just purely from opinion perspective. It's so it's a little frustrating to. You noticed that there and it is an example what after the not. We've got aggressive I want to go with that part of that a lack of talent didn't have great game break it on defense and and they have to kind of play that you know cut the losses bend but don't break. -- in my state -- -- defense instead of playing a more aggressive style football. If I'm looking at that it does it these numbers -- forgetting actual rating itself is the most important number. Percentage for quarterbacks 635 for the pitchers last year's yards per attempt isn't touchdowns -- them -- and -- -- this -- what's that what's that one number I'm looking. The one number violently track -- we've got we have a cool thing called cold hard football back inside we track. The correlation of victory up every applaud all the -- other numbers how often you win games when you win individual numbers really. Cilic you know let me know nobody's doing that it's really cool stuff. I think you know -- from the political at quarterback. Got interception for everything that we could Tom Brady is is you know the winningest quarterback about time. He has one of the greatest touched on yet the second greatest touchdown interception ratio in NFL history was number one until. Aaron Rodgers was not -- the -- all you know the past year. He is predictable points at 1 -- -- with -- mistake. Interception -- you guys absolutely kill you -- fourth deception from British electorate is magical in every pick. Increases your chances of winning it by about twenty percentage points and it really perhaps the single most important play. In football and not only football guys in sports I don't with a simple play. That has such a material impact your ability to weed and wants to win two when it was. The Super Bowl last He would get the typical for all practical intents and purposes was over when Green Bay got that exit. That that was I mean I went with tweeting event is typically the -- over non there was a lot of football -- -- you don't overcome those -- you really -- ever overcome. Those critical can't let alone a success so. It the second but it it devastating to to a to a quarterback's ability to win but if you'll import generic -- -- -- really a great number don't look at. And yet look at the -- average correct and it's it's a huge. Indicator of success that actually average per attempt. Who doubled in lock -- with -- it really -- it's really great but do not look at all that suggests doesn't help you guide to pass a lot for a lot of yards. Almost always losing the game the public -- efficiency getting downfield effectively. That average per attempt. And you know it's our big number one guy got an all time in passing yards per attempt to auto Graham I know that old school. But it got put it six straight NFL championship game that we got to do it no coincidence that He was most effective after all I'm the only got a -- experience of it in Japan. A carrier -- about the devastation that the interceptions. -- on a team at least been in my final question. Follow it take you to stop laughing when Eli -- five interceptions Manning. Said he's as good a quarterback Tom Brady it's. Different backed up you know it I 25 -- it's not ready yet when He by the defection to interceptions. And 2007 yeah -- in Plano it. The receipt of the football you know I mean that's not worth it what do whatever it is now it's a lot of -- I think you also got another one interception season as well. I -- at its inception the panel -- and -- like I like -- I -- I think he's. -- He had you know he's like -- lot of talent around he's not you know and -- quarterback but he's a pretty tough guy. I don't know exactly -- he's responsible for the single greatest drive. NFL history it would never be topped what He did against the patriots and I know Peter then don't like to hear it. And of course it'll it'll drop the ball -- you don't like -- the Tyree catch it if it all but it He did it. He did -- He pulled off the greatest single drive in NFL history you've got history can meet the score a touchdown and a championship game of the final two minutes and do it. Andy Andy did it against it in note in history is that it'll -- -- often enough that that that's all went to submit whatever it does the rest of Korea. Incident took me in my mind -- -- a great player but doing that he's not operating at levels not not -- no way any shape or form but you know what. The guy credit guy win game to -- he's been pretty good brought all the -- championship and the greatest considerable time. He's our good friend Kerry -- check out his website cold hard football fact that lot of fun all the information you -- Gerri good to talk to appreciate the time this morning and it hit the record area are joining us on the AT&T hotline find out what's possible the nation's fastest mobile broadband network AT&T rethink possible. This -- that stat of the week is brought to you by the Gillette fusion pro -- last night the patriots scored touchdowns on their first three offensive possessions. Take a commanding 21 nothing lead in the first quarter. This stat of the week is presented by -- the -- the fence line helped defend your skins and the week by Gillette fusion pro glide.

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